CPS @ RAP
College Park Skyhawks · Raptors 905 · Sunday, 3 January 2027 at 20:00
UpcomingUpdatedAs of 11 Apr
What Forecast expects · Favourite
62%RAPchance to win
RAP · 61.7%38.3% · CPS
- 17 starts with a 61.7% chance to win; 28 with 38.3%.
- In games: out of 10 like this one, 17 would win 6 and 28 4.
Confidence
medium
- The model reads results only: it knows nothing of rosters, absences, rest or the market.
Why
- The model looks at only two things: each team's strength from its results (with memory of previous seasons) and home court.
- Home court is worth 4.7 probability points to 17.
- 17 comes in with more strength from results (1533 vs 1482 strength points): that moves 7.0 points toward 17.
What weighs most
Home court+4.7 toward RAP
Season strength+7.0 toward RAP
probability points
What could flip it
- The model does not read the injury report and has no players inside it: an absence would change the game without changing this number. There is no calculation saying by how much.
- What the model does not look at and this number does not capture: rest and travel, the day's injury report, the starting five and recent form.
Uncertainty
- The model gives a number, not a band: its reliability is measured by comparing forecasts with results, not by drawing a margin.
- It does not know injuries, rest, travel or the starting five: any of them can move this game without the number changing.
- Over 1,519 games in 2025–2026 it did better than home court alone (Brier error 0.240 versus 0.248; 0 would be perfect).
What changed since the last snapshot
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After the game
- Tips off on 2027-01-03. Afterwards, expected versus actual will be compared and recorded here.
Is it calibrated?
1,519
historical games
2025–2026
0.240
error (Brier)
home court only 0.248
- No forecasts have been settled this season yet: this model's calibration starts being measured with the first games (2026-11-07). Until then, its track record is historical: 1,519 games from 2025–2026.
How it is measured and limits
Model
SportiveWorld's results-based game model (Elo), evaluated out of sample in this competition: it reads each team's strength from its results, with memory of previous seasons, and home-court advantage. It knows nothing of rosters, absences or rest.
Data is up to date.
Sample · No settled games yet to measure it against.
Injuries · The model has no players inside it: it reads no absences, rosters or lineups; results only.
- · Strength computed after the latest result consumed (2026-03-31).
As of 11 Apr · SportiveWorld model
Verified against the source · 13/13
- ✓ expected competition and game
- ✓ home and away
- ✓ probability intact
- ✓ favourite = higher probability
- ✓ sealed and signed snapshot
- ✓ registered model
- ✓ sealed before tip-off
- ✓ consistent official result
- ✓ core verified by the server
- ✓ verified components
- ✓ numbers add up
- ✓ freshness without contradiction
- ✓ consistent track record
This is reading the data, not a bet: we work with no bookmakers and show no odds. And a game turns on an injury, a hot night or a bad call.