FORECAST
Forecast 2026-27
Accuracy declared output by output, measured on up to 16 seasons of history
543 · PLAYERS30 · TEAMSSchedule loaded: the full 30-team forecast is under way
TOP PROJECTED 2026-27
Nikola Jokić
+11.06
PROJECTED IMPACT
9.013.1
80% range
98
PROJECTED LEVEL
Current: 99
−1.77
of impact vs 2025-26
HISTORICAL TRACK RECORDHistorical accuracy
67.7 %
right direction
2008-2023
80.2 %
inside the range
2008-2023
63 %
risers
@20 · 2008-2023
89 %
fallers
@10 · 2008-2023
Measured over 16 real seasons (2008-2023, n=5,851): out of every 100 players, 80 finished inside the range we would have given.
TEAM OUTLOOKwins of 82
EAST
1Cleveland CavaliersDonovan Mitchell · most minutes52.447–582Detroit PistonsCade Cunningham · most minutes51.245–573Boston CelticsPayton Pritchard · most minutes47.942–544Philadelphia 76ersTyrese Maxey · most minutes44.339–505New York KnicksJalen Brunson · most minutes44.239–506Orlando MagicPaolo Banchero · most minutes43.137–497Toronto RaptorsScottie Barnes · most minutes42.737–488Charlotte HornetsKon Knueppel · most minutes40.735–469Atlanta HawksJalen Johnson · most minutes38.333–4410Miami HeatBam Adebayo · most minutes38.233–4411Chicago BullsJosh Giddey · most minutes36.231–4212Indiana PacersPascal Siakam · most minutes34.829–4013Milwaukee BucksRyan Rollins · most minutes33.828–4014Brooklyn NetsJulius Randle · most minutes28.123–3415Washington WizardsBub Carrington · most minutes26.522–32
WEST
1Oklahoma City ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander · most minutes61.556–672Denver NuggetsNikola Jokic · most minutes54.649–603San Antonio SpursVictor Wembanyama · most minutes53.948–594Houston RocketsAmen Thompson · most minutes52.547–575Los Angeles LakersLuka Doncic · most minutes50.045–556Minnesota TimberwolvesAnthony Edwards · most minutes44.639–507Golden State WarriorsBrandin Podziemski · most minutes42.337–488LA ClippersKawhi Leonard · most minutes40.435–469Portland Trail BlazersDeni Avdija · most minutes39.934–4510Phoenix SunsDevin Booker · most minutes38.933–4411New Orleans PelicansTrey Murphy III · most minutes35.230–4112Dallas MavericksCooper Flagg · most minutes32.027–3813Utah JazzKeyonte George · most minutes30.325–3514Memphis GrizzliesJaylen Wells · most minutes27.122–3215Sacramento KingsMaxime Raynaud · most minutes24.620–30
See sources
How to read the ranges: historically, ~80% of comparable players finished within this range. It is not an individual probability.
- known + TBD = 19.680 min equivalentes; el TBD (fichajes/rotación futura) NO se reparte
- Known minutes + unallocated = 19,680 equivalents per team. “Unallocated” is future signings and rotation that don't exist yet: it is not force-distributed.
RANKINGS
TOP
RISERS
@20 = 63% (2008-2023, 16/16 > base)
FALLERS
@10 = 89% · @20 = 83% (2008-2023, 16/16)
ROOKIES
R2 pick+age · MAE 2,0 (2008-2024)
AskUpdated: 2026-09-12· source 2026-09-13 (2026-27)· input 2026-09-12· model 2026-09-12· output 2026-09-13