FORECAST
Forecast 2026-27
Accuracy declared output by output, measured on up to 16 seasons of history
541 · PLAYERS30 · TEAMSSchedule loaded: the full 30-team forecast is under way
TOP PROJECTED 2026-27
Nikola Jokić
+11.06
PROJECTED IMPACT
9.013.1
80% range
98
PROJECTED LEVEL
Current: 99
−1.77
of impact vs 2025-26
HISTORICAL TRACK RECORDHistorical accuracy
67.7 %
right direction
2008-2023
80.2 %
inside the range
2008-2023
63 %
risers
@20 · 2008-2023
89 %
fallers
@10 · 2008-2023
Measured over 16 real seasons (2008-2023, n=5,851): out of every 100 players, 80 finished inside the range we would have given.
TEAM OUTLOOKwins of 82
EAST
1Detroit PistonsCade Cunningham · most minutes51.646–572Boston CelticsPayton Pritchard · most minutes50.244–563Cleveland CavaliersDonovan Mitchell · most minutes48.442–544New York KnicksJalen Brunson · most minutes44.439–505Philadelphia 76ersTyrese Maxey · most minutes44.239–506Toronto RaptorsScottie Barnes · most minutes41.736–477Orlando MagicPaolo Banchero · most minutes41.136–478Charlotte HornetsKon Knueppel · most minutes40.635–469Miami HeatBam Adebayo · most minutes38.533–4410Chicago BullsJosh Giddey · most minutes38.032–4311Atlanta HawksJalen Johnson · most minutes37.232–4312Milwaukee BucksRyan Rollins · most minutes34.028–4013Indiana PacersPascal Siakam · most minutes33.728–3914Brooklyn NetsJulius Randle · most minutes29.124–3515Washington WizardsBub Carrington · most minutes24.119–30
WEST
1Oklahoma City ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander · most minutes61.356–662Denver NuggetsNikola Jokic · most minutes53.648–593San Antonio SpursVictor Wembanyama · most minutes52.447–584Los Angeles LakersLuka Doncic · most minutes49.444–545Houston RocketsAmen Thompson · most minutes48.042–536Minnesota TimberwolvesAnthony Edwards · most minutes46.841–527LA ClippersJames Harden · most minutes44.239–508Phoenix SunsKevin Durant · most minutes43.538–499Golden State WarriorsBrandin Podziemski · most minutes41.636–4710New Orleans PelicansTrey Murphy III · most minutes35.230–4111Portland Trail BlazersDeni Avdija · most minutes34.829–4012Memphis GrizzliesDesmond Bane · most minutes34.529–4013Dallas MavericksCooper Flagg · most minutes33.628–3914Utah JazzKeyonte George · most minutes28.123–3415Sacramento KingsDeMar DeRozan · most minutes26.421–32
See sources
How to read the ranges: historically, ~80% of comparable players finished within this range. It is not an individual probability.
- known + TBD = 19.680 min equivalentes; el TBD (fichajes/rotación futura) NO se reparte
- Known minutes + unallocated = 19,680 equivalents per team. “Unallocated” is future signings and rotation that don't exist yet: it is not force-distributed.
RANKINGS
TOP
RISERS
@20 = 63% (2008-2023, 16/16 > base)
FALLERS
@10 = 89% · @20 = 83% (2008-2023, 16/16)
ROOKIES
R2 pick+age · MAE 2,0 (2008-2024)
AskUpdated: 2026-08-28