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Forecast

Oklahoma City Thunder: 61.5 projected wins in 2026-27 (range 50.0–73.0).

61.5
Wins · 2026-27
Oklahoma City Thunder: 61.5 projected wins in 2026-27 (range 50.0–73.0).505560657050.073.0Previous projection 61.561.580 % range
50.0
Wins · min · 2026-27
73.0
Wins · max · 2026-27
80 %
Measured range coverage
Season 2026-27 · current model · computed 2026-09-24
See evidence · 1 pieces of evidence
  1. Projection 2026-27: 61.5 wins · range 50.0–73.0 · model season-engine-v0.1-prod · 2026-09-24
Limits
  • Forecast from the current model; revised with each roster change or injury. See the proof for its evaluation.
  • 80% range: in two of every ten seasons the real result falls outside it.
Revision f3651d0e · model · 2026-09-24
Other readings of Oklahoma City Thunder
Observed

Oklahoma City Thunder lives on Spot up (26.1% of its possessions in 2025-26); what it does best, Transition (percentile 100); where it gets hurt, Spot up (defensive percentile 41).

26.1 %
What it lives on · 2025-26
Oklahoma City Thunder lives on Spot up (26.1% of its possessions in 2025-26); what it does best, Transition (percentile 100); where it gets hurt, Spot up (defensive percentile 41).26 %17 %24 %
Play type · 2025-26 · regular season · NBA.com data
Measured · Partial coverage

Of the current Oklahoma City Thunder players, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished 32.0% of the plays with him on the floor in 2025-26 (regular season and playoffs); the next, Jalen Williams, 25.2%.

32.0 %
Plays he finishes · 2025-26
Of the current Oklahoma City Thunder players, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished 32.0% of the plays with him on the floor in 2025-26 (regular season and playoffs); the next, Jalen Williams, 25.2%.Shai Gilgeous…32.0Jalen Williams25.2Jared McCain23.4Ajay Mitchell21.2Chet Holmgren21.1
2025-26 · usage: regular season and playoffs, clock from 77 games · players with ≥ 250 regular-season min
Observed · Partial coverage

Of Oklahoma City Thunder's current roster, the pairing that has shared the floor most in 2025-26 is Gilgeous-Alexander + Holmgren (1,362 minutes). This map draws the 14 most used pairings: who plays with whom, not how each one fared.

1,361.5
Minutes on court together · 2025-26
Of Oklahoma City Thunder's current roster, the pairing that has shared the floor most in 2025-26 is Gilgeous-Alexander + Holmgren (1,362 minutes). This map draws the 14 most used pairings: who plays with whom, not how each one fared.1,361.51,334.81,039.8892.8Chet Ho…Cason W…Ajay Mi…Shai Gilgeo…14 connections in total
2025-26 · Oklahoma City Thunder
Measured · Partial coverage

Gilgeous-Alexander + Mitchell is, among the combinations compared here, the one with the best difference that holds up: +21.6 per 100 possessions across 1,017 possessions.

21.6
Difference per 100 possessions · 2025-26 · 19 units covering 461 minutes
Gilgeous-Alexander + Mitchell is, among the combinations compared here, the one with the best difference that holds up: +21.6 per 100 possessions across 1,017 possessions.Gilge… + Holmg…1,361.5Gilge… + Walla…1,334.8Holmg… + Walla…1,039.8Gilge… + Mitch…892.8Holmg… + Mitch…891.2
2025-26 · Oklahoma City Thunder
Observed · Partial coverage

Hartenstein · Gilgeous-Alexander · Holmgren · Wallace · Mitchell has played the most of those compared here (53 minutes). None of them clears the conservative threshold we use to rank by performance, so no performance figure is highlighted here: what is shown is how much they played.

53.0 min
Minutes on court together · 2025-26 · a single unit
Hartenstein · Gilgeous-Alexander · Holmgren · Wallace · Mitchell has played the most of those compared here (53 minutes). None of them clears the conservative threshold we use to rank by performance, so no performance figure is highlighted here: what is shown is how much they played.Har… · Gil… · Hol… · Wal… · Mit…53.0Car… · Gil… · Wil… · Wal… · Mit…34.0Gil… · Hol… · Wil… · Wal… · Mit…28.0Car… · Har… · Hol… · Wal… · Mit…22.0Car… · Gil… · Wil… · Wal… · McC…17.0
2025-26 · Oklahoma City Thunder
Observed · Partial coverage

Of Oklahoma City Thunder's 8 five-man units in 2025-26 whose five players are all still at the club today, the most repeated is Hartenstein · Gilgeous-Alexander · Holmgren · Wallace · Mitchell (53 minutes). Together they add up to 198 minutes.

53.0
Minutes on court together · 2025-26 · a single unit
Of Oklahoma City Thunder's 8 five-man units in 2025-26 whose five players are all still at the club today, the most repeated is Hartenstein · Gilgeous-Alexander · Holmgren · Wallace · Mitchell (53 minutes). Together they add up to 198 minutes.27 %17 %
2025-26 · Oklahoma City Thunder
Observed · Partial coverage

Gilgeous-Alexander + Holmgren add up to 1,362 minutes together in 2025-26, spread month by month. 4 pairings from the current roster are drawn: how much they have shared the floor, not how they fared.

245.9 min
Minutes on court together · 2025-11
Gilgeous-Alexander + Holmgren add up to 1,362 minutes together in 2025-26, spread month by month. 4 pairings from the current roster are drawn: how much they have shared the floor, not how they fared.80.0
2025-26 · Oklahoma City Thunder
Measured · Partial coverage

Gilgeous-Alexander + Holmgren · 1,961 possessions: above the conservative threshold we apply before comparing.

1,361.5 min
Minutes on court together · 2025-26 · game clock across 77 games
Gilgeous-Alexander + Holmgren · 1,961 possessions: above the conservative threshold we apply before comparing.Minutes on…PossessionsPoints sco…Points all…Difference…Pace
2025-26 · Oklahoma City Thunder
Measured · Partial coverage

Of 184 combinations, 20 have not shared a single minute and 139 have too short a sample to conclude anything. Only 25 clear the conservative threshold we use to rank them.

15
2 · 2025-26
25 supported · 0 inferences
  1. Gilgeous-Alexander and Holmgren: 1,361.5 minutes together across 65 games in 2025-26
  2. Hartenstein · Gilgeous-Alexander · Dort · Holmgren · Wallace: 167 minutes across 16 games · 120.9 scored and 102.3 allowed per 100 possessions (350 possessions)
2025-26 · Oklahoma City Thunder
Profile · Oklahoma City Thunder