External consensus: rank 61 (mean 57.0, 1 source, spread 0.0) · by source: Tankathon #57 · captured 2026-09-13 · consensus position counting only prospects that SportiveWorld can rank: 34
SportiveWorld rank 9 of 37 ranked prospects (27 on the board cannot be ranked) · career-probability score 66.8% (probability of reaching 2000 NBA minutes, calibrated) · probability of reaching the NBA at all 85.8% · model confidence alta · gap versus consensus +52 places (positive = SportiveWorld rates the prospect higher than the consensus)
Model signals for the measured season (z = standard deviations versus the calibration cohort; contribution = effect on the career probability, positive helps): opponent strength (margin of victory rating) z +2.8 → +2.68 · own team strength z +2.7 → +2.28 · assists per 40 z +3.7 → +0.85 · minutes per game z +0.3 → +0.17 · turnovers per 40 z +1.7 → +0.08 · points per 40 z +0.0 → +0.04 · three-point attempt rate z +0.6 → +0.02 · true shooting z -0.2 → +0.01 · three-point % z +0.7 → +0.01 · free-throw rate z -0.0 → +0.00 · steals per 40 z -0.2 → -0.03 · offensive rebounds per 40 z -1.1 → -0.04 · field-goal attempts per 40 z +0.1 → -0.05 · blocks per 40 z -0.5 → -0.19 · rebounds per 40 z -0.9 → -0.24
Michigan Wolverines 2025-26: Big Ten Conference · conference record 19-1 · overall 29-2 · last poll position: Coaches Poll week 21 #1 (37-3)
Historical comparables (2025-26 profile, archetype base_director): of the 68 closest university seasons, 11 reached the NBA · expected outcome Diante Garrett (1199 NBA minutes) · ceiling Deron Williams (28860 min) · floor Jordan Bone (251 min) · closest twins: Larry Drew II (1.09), Scott Machado (1.69), Walker Russell (1.69) · confidence alta
2023-24 · North Carolina Tar Heels · 31 games with box score of 37 played by the team (coverage 84%) · 24.3 min · 7.7 pts · 2.0 reb · 4.0 ast · per 40: 12.7 pts / 3.3 reb / 6.6 ast / 1.3 stl / 0.1 blk / 3.0 tov / 10.5 FGA · TS 50.7% · 3PA rate 18.7% · 3P —% · FT rate 43.4% · opponent strength +3.4 (z +1.3) · own team strength +11.5 (z +1.7) · career probability that season 6.0%
2025-26 (the season the model measures) · Michigan Wolverines · 40 games with box score of 40 played by the team (coverage 100%) · 23 conference games in the sample · 27.3 min · 10.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 5.9 ast · per 40: 15.4 pts / 4.0 reb / 8.6 ast / 1.2 stl / 0.3 blk / 3.5 tov / 12.1 FGA · TS 54.9% · 3PA rate 52.3% · 3P 37.6% · FT rate 35.3% · opponent strength +6.5 (z +2.8) · own team strength +17.8 (z +2.7) · career probability that season 66.8%
Change from 2023-24 to 2025-26: points per 40 +2.7 · true shooting +4.2 pp · assists per 40 +1.9 · rebounds per 40 +0.7 · minutes +3.0 · career probability +60.8 pp
2023-24 archetype from the university profile: alero_con_pase (31 games, 24.3 min)
2025-26 archetype from the university profile: base_director (40 games, 27.3 min)
Splits derived from the game log: versus strong opponents (rating +8 or better, 16 games) 10.3 pts / 2.7 reb / 7.1 ast in 30.6 min · versus weak opponents (negative rating, 6 games) 11.7 pts / 1.7 reb / 6.0 ast · home (27) 10.9 pts vs away/neutral (13) 9.6 pts · first half of the log (20) 10.1 pts / 24.8 min vs second half (20) 10.9 pts / 29.8 min
Game log 2025-26 (40 games, team 37-3 in them): 11-04 vs Oakland Golden Grizzlies (opp +0.9) W 121-78: 25 min, 5 pts, 5 reb, 14 ast · 11-11 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons (opp +1.9) W 85-84: 36 min, 17 pts, 8 reb, 7 ast · 11-15 at TCU Horned Frogs (opp +5.3) W 67-63: 26 min, 3 pts, 5 reb, 1 ast · 11-19 vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (opp +2.7) W 86-61: 21 min, 10 pts, 2 reb, 1 ast · 11-25 vs San Diego State Aztecs (opp +7.2) W 94-54: 18 min, 13 pts, 3 reb, 1 ast · 11-26 vs Auburn Tigers (opp +4.2) W 102-72: 13 min, 3 pts, 1 reb, 1 ast · 11-27 vs Gonzaga Bulldogs (opp +18.1) W 101-61: 24 min, 5 pts, 2 reb, 13 ast · 12-06 vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights (opp -4.8) W 101-60: 20 min, 11 pts, 2 reb, 9 ast · 12-09 vs Villanova Wildcats (opp +5.9) W 89-61: 24 min, 18 pts, 3 reb, 4 ast · 12-14 at Maryland Terrapins (opp -6.9) W 101-83: 34 min, 12 pts, 1 reb, 10 ast · 12-21 vs La Salle Explorers (opp -6.9) W 102-50: 20 min, 14 pts, 2 reb, 3 ast · 12-30 vs McNeese Cowboys (opp +12.9) W 112-71: 17 min, 7 pts, 1 reb, 3 ast · 01-03 vs USC Trojans (opp +0.7) W 96-66: 29 min, 7 pts, 6 reb, 7 ast · 01-07 at Penn State Nittany Lions (opp -5.7) W 74-72: 27 min, 9 pts, 2 reb, 1 ast · 01-10 vs Wisconsin Ba
