SBB @ GIR
Surne Bilbao · FIATC Girona · Saturday, 7 November 2026 at 19:30
UpcomingUpdatedAs of 24 Jun
What Forecast expects · Even
52%GIRchance to win
GIR · 51.8%48.2% · SBB
- A toss-up for the model: GIR 51.8% · SBB 48.2%.
- In games: out of 10 like this one, GIR would win 5 and SBB 5.
Confidence
low
- The model has it close to 50-50: either result would be normal.
- The model reads results only: it knows nothing of rosters, absences, rest or the market.
Why
- The model looks at only two things: each team's strength from its results (with memory of previous seasons) and home court.
- Home court is worth 8.9 probability points to GIR.
- SBB comes in with more strength from results (1512 vs 1462 strength points): that moves 7.1 points toward SBB.
What weighs most
Home court+8.9 toward GIR
Season strength+7.1 toward SBB
probability points
What could flip it
- The model does not read the injury report and has no players inside it: an absence would change the game without changing this number. There is no calculation saying by how much.
- What the model does not look at and this number does not capture: rest and travel, the day's injury report, the starting five and recent form.
Uncertainty
- The model gives a number, not a band: its reliability is measured by comparing forecasts with results, not by drawing a margin.
- It does not know injuries, rest, travel or the starting five: any of them can move this game without the number changing.
- Over 612 games in 2024–2025 it did better than home court alone (Brier error 0.200 versus 0.241; 0 would be perfect).
What changed since the last snapshot
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After the game
- Tips off on 2026-11-07. Afterwards, expected versus actual will be compared and recorded here.
Is it calibrated?
612
historical games
2024–2025
0.200
error (Brier)
home court only 0.241
- No forecasts have been settled this season yet: this model's calibration starts being measured with the first games (2026-09-26). Until then, its track record is historical: 612 games from 2024–2025.
How it is measured and limits
Model
SportiveWorld's results-based game model (Elo), evaluated out of sample in this competition: it reads each team's strength from its results, with memory of previous seasons, and home-court advantage. It knows nothing of rosters, absences or rest.
Data is up to date.
Sample · No settled games yet to measure it against.
Injuries · The model has no players inside it: it reads no absences, rosters or lineups; results only.
- · Strength computed after the latest result consumed (2026-06-05).
As of 24 Jun · SportiveWorld model
Verified against the source · 13/13
- ✓ expected competition and game
- ✓ home and away
- ✓ probability intact
- ✓ favourite = higher probability
- ✓ sealed and signed snapshot
- ✓ registered model
- ✓ sealed before tip-off
- ✓ consistent official result
- ✓ core verified by the server
- ✓ verified components
- ✓ numbers add up
- ✓ freshness without contradiction
- ✓ consistent track record
This is reading the data, not a bet: we work with no bookmakers and show no odds. And a game turns on an injury, a hot night or a bad call.