PRS @ PAR
Paris · Partizan · Tuesday, 9 March 2027 at 20:45
UpcomingUpdatedAs of 24 Sept
What Forecast expects · Favourite
65%PARchance to win
PAR · 65.2%34.8% · PRS
- PAR starts with a 65.2% chance to win; PRS with 34.8%.
- In games: out of 10 like this one, PAR would win 7 and PRS 3.
Confidence
medium
- The model reads results only: it knows nothing of rosters, absences, rest or the market.
Why
- The model looks at only two things: each team's strength from its results (with memory of previous seasons) and home court.
- Home court is worth 13.2 probability points to PAR.
- PAR comes in with more strength from results (1488 vs 1473 strength points): that moves 2.0 points toward PAR.
What weighs most
Home court+13.2 toward PAR
Season strength+2.0 toward PAR
probability points
What could flip it
- The model does not read the injury report and has no players inside it: an absence would change the game without changing this number. There is no calculation saying by how much.
- What the model does not look at and this number does not capture: rest and travel, the day's injury report, the starting five and recent form.
Uncertainty
- The model gives a number, not a band: its reliability is measured by comparing forecasts with results, not by drawing a margin.
- It does not know injuries, rest, travel or the starting five: any of them can move this game without the number changing.
- Over 1,298 games in E2022–E2025 it did better than home court alone (Brier error 0.215 versus 0.232; 0 would be perfect).
What changed since the last snapshot
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After the game
- Tips off on 2027-03-09. Afterwards, expected versus actual will be compared and recorded here.
Is it calibrated?
7
games measured
57%
accuracy
0.232
error (Brier)
46 pp
average deviation (ECE)
- Over 7 settled games with this model: it picked the right side 57% of the time and its average error (Brier) was 0.232. When it said X%, reality was on average 46 points away from that X%.
- 7 games is a small sample: these numbers still move a lot.
How it is measured and limits
Model
SportiveWorld's results-based game model (Elo), evaluated out of sample in this competition: it reads each team's strength from its results, with memory of previous seasons, and home-court advantage. It knows nothing of rosters, absences or rest.
Data is up to date.
Sample · Measured against 7 settled games.
Injuries · The model has no players inside it: it reads no absences, rosters or lineups; results only.
- · 7 games is a small sample: these numbers still move a lot.
- · Strength computed after the latest result consumed (2026-09-24).
As of 24 Sept · SportiveWorld model
Verified against the source · 13/13
- ✓ expected competition and game
- ✓ home and away
- ✓ probability intact
- ✓ favourite = higher probability
- ✓ sealed and signed snapshot
- ✓ registered model
- ✓ sealed before tip-off
- ✓ consistent official result
- ✓ core verified by the server
- ✓ verified components
- ✓ numbers add up
- ✓ freshness without contradiction
- ✓ consistent track record
This is reading the data, not a bet: we work with no bookmakers and show no odds. And a game turns on an injury, a hot night or a bad call.