ATL @ DEN
Atlanta Hawks · Denver Nuggets · Friday, 18 December 2026 at 03:00
UpcomingUpdatedAs of 24 Sept
What Forecast expects · Favourite
76%DENchance to win
DEN · 75.7%24.3% · ATL
- DEN starts with a 75.7% chance to win; ATL with 24.3%.
- In games: out of 10 like this one, DEN would win 8 and ATL 2.
Confidence
medium
- The model sees a clear favorite.
- No game forecast has been checked against a result yet this season: confidence cannot be high until there are some.
- The model does not know this game's injuries or starting five.
Why
- Home court is worth 7.2 probability points to DEN.
- DEN's projected roster is stronger: 2nd in the league versus ATL's 18th. That moves 18.5 points toward DEN.
- Who carries DEN: Nikola Jokic · Jamal Murray · Aaron Gordon.
- DEN has 4,145 season minutes unassigned (21%); the model counts them at replacement level.
- Who carries ATL: Jalen Johnson · Dyson Daniels · Onyeka Okongwu.
- ATL has 654 season minutes unassigned (3%); the model counts them at replacement level.
What weighs most
Home court+7.2 toward DEN
Projected roster+18.5 toward DEN
probability points
What could flip it
- Without Nikola Jokic (DEN), with his minutes at replacement level, the model would give DEN 56.2%.DEN 56%
- Without Jalen Johnson (ATL), with his minutes at replacement level, the model would give DEN 80.9%.DEN 81%
- What the model does not look at and this number does not capture: rest and travel, the day's injury report, the starting five and recent form.
Uncertainty
- The model gives a number, not a band: its reliability is measured by comparing forecasts with results, not by drawing a margin.
- Over 10,749 games in 2017-2025 it did better than home court alone (Brier error 0.227 versus 0.247; 0 would be perfect).
- Rosters are not settled: the forecast is recomputed daily with that day's roster.
- It does not know injuries, rest, travel or the starting five: any of them can move this game without the number changing.
What changed since the last snapshot
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After the game
- Tips off on 2026-12-18. Afterwards, expected versus actual will be compared and recorded here.
Is it calibrated?
10,749
historical games
2017-2025
0.227
error (Brier)
home court only 0.247
- No forecasts have been settled this season yet: this model's calibration starts being measured with the first games (2026-10-20). Until then, its track record is historical: 10,749 games from 2017-2025.
How it is measured and limits
Model
SportiveWorld's game model, frozen before the season: it reads each roster's projected strength and home-court advantage. It does not read the day's injury report.
Data is up to date.
Sample · No settled games yet to measure it against.
Injuries · The model does not read the day's injury report: the rosters it uses are the season projections.
- · Rosters are not settled yet: the number can move until the season starts.
As of 24 Sept · SportiveWorld model
Verified against the source · 14/14
- ✓ expected competition and game
- ✓ home and away
- ✓ probability intact
- ✓ favourite = higher probability
- ✓ sealed and signed snapshot
- ✓ registered model
- ✓ sealed before tip-off
- ✓ consistent official result
- ✓ core verified by the server
- ✓ verified components
- ✓ numbers add up
- ✓ consistent scenarios
- ✓ freshness without contradiction
- ✓ consistent track record
This is reading the data, not a bet: we work with no bookmakers and show no odds. And a game turns on an injury, a hot night or a bad call.