TOR @ WSH
Toronto Tempo · Washington Mystics · Thursday, 20 August 2026 at 01:30
CorrectPreview saved before the gameAs of 19 Aug
What Forecast expects · Favourite
81%WSHchance to win
WSH · 81.1%18.9% · TOR
- WSH starts with a 81.1% chance to win; TOR with 18.9%.
- In games: out of 10 like this one, WSH would win 8 and TOR 2.
Confidence
medium
- The model sees a clear favorite.
- Research-stage model: shown as what it said before tip-off, not as an advantage.
- The model does not know this game's injuries or starting five.
Why
- The model looks at only two things: each team's accumulated season strength and home court.
- This snapshot's components are not sealed: they are not rebuilt from later data, so there are no pillars or counterfactuals here.
- This snapshot's components are not sealed: they are not rebuilt from later data, so there are no pillars or counterfactuals here.
- The explanatory components are not verified for this version: the probability is shown, but not what breaks it down nor the scenarios.
- The explanatory components are not verified for this version: the probability is shown, but not what breaks it down nor the scenarios.
Quantified explanation not available: the components are not verified for this version.
What could flip it
- The model does not read the injury report and has no players inside it: an absence would change the game without changing this number. There is no calculation saying by how much.
- What the model does not look at and this number does not capture: rest and travel, the day's injury report, the starting five and recent form.
Uncertainty
- The model gives a number, not a band: its reliability is measured by comparing forecasts with results, not by drawing a margin.
- It does not know injuries, rest, travel or the starting five: any of them can move this game without the number changing.
- For reference, the pre-tip market consensus gave WSH 86.5%.
What changed since the last snapshot
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After the game
WSH 81%
Expected
WSH 93 – TOR 82
Actual
0.04
this game's error
- Expected: WSH at 81.1%.
- Actual: WSH 93 – TOR 82. WSH won.
- The favorite delivered.
- This game's error: 0.04 (0 = nailed it, 1 = worst possible; a 50% call would score 0.25).
- The market consensus did get the side right (86.5% on the winner).
Is it calibrated?
49
games measured
76%
accuracy
0.172
error (Brier)
market 0.169
12 pp
average deviation (ECE)
- Over 49 settled games with this model: it picked the right side 76% of the time and its average error (Brier) was 0.172. When it said X%, reality was on average 12 points away from that X%.
- On those same games, the market consensus had less error (0.169 versus 0.172): the model does not beat it, and we say so.
- 49 games is a small sample: these numbers still move a lot.
How it is measured and limits
Model
SportiveWorld's WNBA game model, research stage: it reads each team's accumulated season strength and home-court advantage. Shown as what it said before tip-off, not as an edge.
This is the preview saved before the game, not current data.
Sample · Measured against 49 settled games.
Injuries · No injury source before tip-off: the model did not know who was playing.
- · What you see is the preview sealed before the game, not a later recalculation.
- · 49 games is a small sample: these numbers still move a lot.
- · The explanatory components are not verified for this version: the probability is shown, but not what breaks it down nor the scenarios.
- · The explanatory components are not verified for this version: the probability is shown, but not what breaks it down nor the scenarios.
As of 19 Aug · SportiveWorld model
Warning · 11/12
- ✓ expected competition and game
- ✓ home and away
- ✓ probability intact
- ✓ favourite = higher probability
- ✓ sealed and signed snapshot
- ✓ registered model
- ✓ sealed before tip-off
- ✓ consistent official result
- ✓ core verified by the server
- ✗ verified components
- ✓ freshness without contradiction
- ✓ consistent track record
This is reading the data, not a bet: we work with no bookmakers and show no odds. And a game turns on an injury, a hot night or a bad call.