FORECAST · WNBA
What Forecast expects
Each game's probability, explained in basketball terms: why, what could flip it, what we don't know and how the model has performed.
Preview saved before the gameAs of 24 Sept49 games with a forecast
Previews saved before tip-off and compared with the result.
24 SeptDAL @ SEAFavourite · DAL 79%Played24 SeptATL @ NYFavourite · ATL 51%Played23 SeptGS @ PORFavourite · GS 82%POR 90 – GS 82Missed23 SeptLA @ LVFavourite · LV 79%LV 89 – LA 79Correct21 SeptSEA @ LVFavourite · LV 89%LV 98 – SEA 77Correct20 SeptPOR @ LAFavourite · LA 55%LA 105 – POR 84Correct20 SeptWSH @ INDFavourite · IND 59%IND 77 – WSH 93Missed20 SeptNY @ TORFavourite · NY 81%TOR 69 – NY 106Correct20 SeptSEA @ GSFavourite · GS 92%GS 70 – SEA 57Correct19 SeptCHI @ ATLFavourite · ATL 79%ATL 106 – CHI 81Correct19 SeptPHX @ DALFavourite · DAL 71%DAL 87 – PHX 82Correct19 SeptPOR @ GSFavourite · GS 84%GS 82 – POR 66Correct18 SeptNY @ MINFavourite · MIN 70%MIN 81 – NY 93Missed18 SeptIND @ TORFavourite · IND 82%TOR 85 – IND 103Correct18 SeptWSH @ CHIFavourite · WSH 68%CHI 80 – WSH 110Correct18 SeptLA @ DALFavourite · DAL 71%DAL 97 – LA 77Correct17 SeptCON @ ATLFavourite · ATL 84%ATL 103 – CON 59Correct31 AugCON @ DALFavourite · DAL 78%DAL 97 – CON 71Correct30 AugGS @ PORFavourite · GS 76%POR 69 – GS 86Correct30 AugLA @ SEAFavourite · LA 59%SEA 74 – LA 90Correct30 AugMIN @ ATLFavourite · MIN 64%ATL 89 – MIN 81Missed30 AugTOR @ PHXFavourite · PHX 64%PHX 101 – TOR 69Correct29 AugCHI @ NYFavourite · NY 74%NY 85 – CHI 66Correct29 AugTOR @ LVFavourite · LV 85%LV 93 – TOR 73Correct29 AugWSH @ LAFavourite · WSH 74%LA 88 – WSH 82Missed28 AugPOR @ ATLFavourite · ATL 79%ATL 83 – POR 101Missed28 AugCON @ INDFavourite · IND 84%IND 111 – CON 91Correct28 AugWSH @ PHXFavourite · WSH 70%PHX 73 – WSH 80Correct28 AugGS @ NYFavourite · GS 55%NY 60 – GS 79Correct27 AugTOR @ SEAFavourite · TOR 55%SEA 90 – TOR 78Missed26 AugGS @ CONFavourite · GS 80%CON 64 – GS 89Correct26 AugWSH @ PHXFavourite · WSH 67%PHX 84 – WSH 94Correct26 AugPOR @ DALFavourite · DAL 70%DAL 96 – POR 78Correct25 AugCHI @ CONFavourite · CHI 59%CON 87 – CHI 81Missed25 AugATL @ LAFavourite · ATL 73%LA 71 – ATL 78Correct25 AugGS @ MINFavourite · MIN 69%MIN 66 – GS 80Missed23 AugIND @ CHIFavourite · IND 66%CHI 90 – IND 113Correct23 AugLV @ TORFavourite · LV 76%TOR 78 – LV 88Correct23 AugWSH @ PORFavourite · WSH 65%POR 100 – WSH 105Correct23 AugSEA @ DALFavourite · DAL 81%DAL 92 – SEA 70Correct
HISTORICAL TRACK RECORD
Measured over 47 games: it picked the right side 74% of the time and its average error (Brier) was 0.173.
On those same games the market consensus had less error (0.172 versus 0.173): the model does not beat it, and we say so.
This is reading the data, not a bet: we work with no bookmakers and show no odds. And a game turns on an injury, a hot night or a bad call.