POR @ TOR
Portland Fire · Toronto Tempo · Saturday, 22 August 2026 at 04:00
MissedPreview saved before the gameAs of 22 Aug
What Forecast expects · Favourite
60%PORchance to win
TOR · 40.0%60.0% · POR
- POR starts with a 60.0% chance to win; TOR with 40.0%.
- In games: out of 10 like this one, POR would win 6 and TOR 4.
Confidence
medium
- Research-stage model: shown as what it said before tip-off, not as an advantage.
- The model does not know this game's injuries or starting five.
Why
- The model looks at only two things: each team's accumulated season strength and home court.
- Home court is worth 4.6 probability points to TOR.
- POR comes in with the stronger accumulated season form: that moves 14.6 points toward POR.
What weighs most
Home court+4.6 toward TOR
Season strength+14.6 toward POR
probability points
What could flip it
- The model does not read the injury report and has no players inside it: an absence would change the game without changing this number. There is no calculation saying by how much.
- What the model does not look at and this number does not capture: rest and travel, the day's injury report, the starting five and recent form.
Uncertainty
- The model gives a number, not a band: its reliability is measured by comparing forecasts with results, not by drawing a margin.
- It does not know injuries, rest, travel or the starting five: any of them can move this game without the number changing.
- For reference, the pre-tip market consensus gave TOR 43.0%.
What changed since the last snapshot
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After the game
POR 60%
Expected
TOR 82 – POR 79
Actual
0.36
this game's error
- Expected: POR at 60.0%.
- Actual: TOR 82 – POR 79. TOR won.
- The model picked the wrong side.
- This game's error: 0.36 (0 = nailed it, 1 = worst possible; a 50% call would score 0.25).
- The market consensus (43.0% on the winner) also picked the wrong side.
Is it calibrated?
49
games measured
76%
accuracy
0.172
error (Brier)
market 0.169
12 pp
average deviation (ECE)
- Over 49 settled games with this model: it picked the right side 76% of the time and its average error (Brier) was 0.172. When it said X%, reality was on average 12 points away from that X%.
- On those same games, the market consensus had less error (0.169 versus 0.172): the model does not beat it, and we say so.
- 49 games is a small sample: these numbers still move a lot.
How it is measured and limits
Model
SportiveWorld's WNBA game model, research stage: it reads each team's accumulated season strength and home-court advantage. Shown as what it said before tip-off, not as an edge.
This is the preview saved before the game, not current data.
Sample · Measured against 49 settled games.
Injuries · Availability known before tip-off: an injury report existed and was read (it does not enter the number).
- · What you see is the preview sealed before the game, not a later recalculation.
- · 49 games is a small sample: these numbers still move a lot.
As of 22 Aug · SportiveWorld model
Verified against the source · 13/13
- ✓ expected competition and game
- ✓ home and away
- ✓ probability intact
- ✓ favourite = higher probability
- ✓ sealed and signed snapshot
- ✓ registered model
- ✓ sealed before tip-off
- ✓ consistent official result
- ✓ core verified by the server
- ✓ verified components
- ✓ numbers add up
- ✓ freshness without contradiction
- ✓ consistent track record
This is reading the data, not a bet: we work with no bookmakers and show no odds. And a game turns on an injury, a hot night or a bad call.