WSH @ IND

Washington Mystics · Indiana Fever · Sunday, 20 September 2026 at 22:00

MissedPreview saved before the gameAs of 20 Sept

What Forecast expects · Favourite

59%INDchance to win

IND · 59.3%40.7% · WSH

IND starts with a 59.3% chance to win; WSH with 40.7%.
In games: out of 10 like this one, IND would win 6 and WSH 4.

Confidence

medium

Research-stage model: shown as what it said before tip-off, not as an advantage.
The model does not know this game's injuries or starting five.

Why

The model looks at only two things: each team's accumulated season strength and home court.
Home court is worth 4.4 probability points to IND.
IND comes in with the stronger accumulated season form: that moves 4.9 points toward IND.

What weighs most

Home court+4.4 toward IND

Season strength+4.9 toward IND

probability points

What could flip it

The model does not read the injury report and has no players inside it: an absence would change the game without changing this number. There is no calculation saying by how much.
What the model does not look at and this number does not capture: rest and travel, the day's injury report, the starting five and recent form.

Uncertainty

The model gives a number, not a band: its reliability is measured by comparing forecasts with results, not by drawing a margin.
It does not know injuries, rest, travel or the starting five: any of them can move this game without the number changing.
For reference, the pre-tip market consensus gave IND 67.6%.

What changed since the last snapshot

4 snapshots sealed before tip-off, from first snapshot (19 Sept) to last before tip-off (20 Sept).
No change for this game: IND stays at 59.3%.
Availability: no injury report → partial injury report.
It is a change measured between two snapshots, not an explanation of its cause.

What changed since the last snapshot

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After the game

IND 59%

Expected

IND 77 – WSH 93

Actual

0.35

this game's error

Expected: IND at 59.3%.
Actual: IND 77 – WSH 93. WSH won.
The model picked the wrong side.
This game's error: 0.35 (0 = nailed it, 1 = worst possible; a 50% call would score 0.25).
The market consensus (32.4% on the winner) also picked the wrong side.
What we learn: the model does not know injuries; any relevant absence was invisible to it.

Is it calibrated?

games measured

76%

accuracy

0.172

error (Brier)

market 0.169

12 pp

average deviation (ECE)

Over 49 settled games with this model: it picked the right side 76% of the time and its average error (Brier) was 0.172. When it said X%, reality was on average 12 points away from that X%.
On those same games, the market consensus had less error (0.169 versus 0.172): the model does not beat it, and we say so.
49 games is a small sample: these numbers still move a lot.

How it is measured and limits

Model

SportiveWorld's WNBA game model, research stage: it reads each team's accumulated season strength and home-court advantage. Shown as what it said before tip-off, not as an edge.

This is the preview saved before the game, not current data.

Sample · Measured against 49 settled games.

Injuries · Partial availability before tip-off: the injury report was incomplete.

· What you see is the preview sealed before the game, not a later recalculation.
· 49 games is a small sample: these numbers still move a lot.

As of 20 Sept · SportiveWorld model

Verified against the source · 13/13

✓ expected competition and game
✓ home and away
✓ probability intact
✓ favourite = higher probability
✓ sealed and signed snapshot
✓ registered model
✓ sealed before tip-off
✓ consistent official result
✓ core verified by the server
✓ verified components
✓ numbers add up
✓ freshness without contradiction
✓ consistent track record

← All games with a forecast

This is reading the data, not a bet: we work with no bookmakers and show no odds. And a game turns on an injury, a hot night or a bad call.