POR @ LA
Portland Fire · Los Angeles Sparks · Monday, 21 September 2026 at 01:00
CorrectPreview saved before the gameAs of 20 Sept
What Forecast expects · Favourite
55%LAchance to win
LA · 55.3%44.7% · POR
- LA starts with a 55.3% chance to win; POR with 44.7%.
- In games: out of 10 like this one, LA would win 6 and POR 4.
Confidence
low
- The model has it close to 50-50: either result would be normal.
- Research-stage model: shown as what it said before tip-off, not as an advantage.
- The model does not know this game's injuries or starting five.
Why
- The model looks at only two things: each team's accumulated season strength and home court.
- Home court is worth 4.4 probability points to LA.
- Both teams' accumulated season strength is even: home court decides.
What weighs most
Home court+4.4 toward LA
Season strength+0.9 toward LA
probability points
What could flip it
- The model does not read the injury report and has no players inside it: an absence would change the game without changing this number. There is no calculation saying by how much.
- What the model does not look at and this number does not capture: rest and travel, the day's injury report, the starting five and recent form.
Uncertainty
- The model gives a number, not a band: its reliability is measured by comparing forecasts with results, not by drawing a margin.
- It does not know injuries, rest, travel or the starting five: any of them can move this game without the number changing.
- For reference, the pre-tip market consensus gave LA 51.0%.
What changed since the last snapshot
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After the game
LA 55%
Expected
LA 105 – POR 84
Actual
0.20
this game's error
- Expected: LA at 55.3%.
- Actual: LA 105 – POR 84. LA won.
- The favorite delivered.
- This game's error: 0.20 (0 = nailed it, 1 = worst possible; a 50% call would score 0.25).
- The market consensus did get the side right (51.0% on the winner).
- What we learn: it was a coin flip for the model; the result says little about it.
Is it calibrated?
47
games measured
74%
accuracy
0.173
error (Brier)
market 0.172
13 pp
average deviation (ECE)
- Over 47 settled games with this model: it picked the right side 74% of the time and its average error (Brier) was 0.173. When it said X%, reality was on average 13 points away from that X%.
- On those same games, the market consensus had less error (0.172 versus 0.173): the model does not beat it, and we say so.
- 47 games is a small sample: these numbers still move a lot.
How it is measured and limits
Model
SportiveWorld's WNBA game model, research stage: it reads each team's accumulated season strength and home-court advantage. Shown as what it said before tip-off, not as an edge.
This is the preview saved before the game, not current data.
Sample · Measured against 47 settled games.
Injuries · Availability known before tip-off: an injury report existed and was read (it does not enter the number).
- · What you see is the preview sealed before the game, not a later recalculation.
- · 47 games is a small sample: these numbers still move a lot.
As of 20 Sept · SportiveWorld model
Verified against the source · 13/13
- ✓ expected competition and game
- ✓ home and away
- ✓ probability intact
- ✓ favourite = higher probability
- ✓ sealed and signed snapshot
- ✓ registered model
- ✓ sealed before tip-off
- ✓ consistent official result
- ✓ core verified by the server
- ✓ verified components
- ✓ numbers add up
- ✓ freshness without contradiction
- ✓ consistent track record
This is reading the data, not a bet: we work with no bookmakers and show no odds. And a game turns on an injury, a hot night or a bad call.