ATL @ NY

Atlanta Dream · New York Liberty · Thursday, 24 September 2026 at 02:00

UpcomingUpdatedAs of 23 Sept

What Forecast expects · Even

51%ATLchance to win

NY · 48.6%51.4% · ATL

A toss-up for the model: NY 48.6% · ATL 51.4%.
In games: out of 10 like this one, ATL would win 5 and NY 5.

Confidence

low

The model has it close to 50-50: either result would be normal.
Research-stage model: shown as what it said before tip-off, not as an advantage.
The model does not know this game's injuries or starting five.

Why

The model looks at only two things: each team's accumulated season strength and home court.
Home court is worth 4.4 probability points to NY.
ATL comes in with the stronger accumulated season form: that moves 5.8 points toward ATL.

What weighs most

Home court+4.4 toward NY

Season strength+5.8 toward ATL

probability points

What could flip it

The model does not read the injury report and has no players inside it: an absence would change the game without changing this number. There is no calculation saying by how much.
What the model does not look at and this number does not capture: rest and travel, the day's injury report, the starting five and recent form.

Uncertainty

The model gives a number, not a band: its reliability is measured by comparing forecasts with results, not by drawing a margin.
It does not know injuries, rest, travel or the starting five: any of them can move this game without the number changing.
For reference, the pre-tip market consensus gave NY 37.7%.

What changed since the last snapshot

3 snapshots sealed before tip-off, from first snapshot (22 Sept) to last before tip-off (23 Sept).
No change for this game: NY stays at 48.6%.
Availability: no injury report → injury report read.
It is a change measured between two snapshots, not an explanation of its cause.

What changed since the last snapshot

Loading…

After the game

Tips off on 2026-09-24. Afterwards, expected versus actual will be compared and recorded here.

Is it calibrated?

games measured

74%

accuracy

0.173

error (Brier)

market 0.172

13 pp

average deviation (ECE)

Over 47 settled games with this model: it picked the right side 74% of the time and its average error (Brier) was 0.173. When it said X%, reality was on average 13 points away from that X%.
On those same games, the market consensus had less error (0.172 versus 0.173): the model does not beat it, and we say so.
47 games is a small sample: these numbers still move a lot.

How it is measured and limits

Model

SportiveWorld's WNBA game model, research stage: it reads each team's accumulated season strength and home-court advantage. Shown as what it said before tip-off, not as an edge.

Data is up to date.

Sample · Measured against 47 settled games.

Injuries · Availability known before tip-off: an injury report existed and was read (it does not enter the number).

· 47 games is a small sample: these numbers still move a lot.

As of 23 Sept · SportiveWorld model

Verified against the source · 13/13

✓ expected competition and game
✓ home and away
✓ probability intact
✓ favourite = higher probability
✓ sealed and signed snapshot
✓ registered model
✓ sealed before tip-off
✓ consistent official result
✓ core verified by the server
✓ verified components
✓ numbers add up
✓ freshness without contradiction
✓ consistent track record

← All games with a forecast

This is reading the data, not a bet: we work with no bookmakers and show no odds. And a game turns on an injury, a hot night or a bad call.