Win probability changed during the game. · 28 December 2020
It was more exciting than 91% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 39 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when OKC leads and falls when UTA does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · UTA
Gobert · Mitchell · Bogdanovic · O'Neale · Conley
Closing lineup · OKC
Gilgeous-Alexander · Bazley · Dort · Horford · Hill
Rudy Gobert
37′ · +5
Donovan Mitchell
35′ · -4
Bojan Bogdanovic
35′ · -3
Royce O'Neale
34′ · +1
Mike Conley
32′ · +1
Joe Ingles
20′ · 0
Derrick Favors
11′ · -4
Jordan Clarkson
26′ · +5
Georges Niang
8′ · -1
Miye Oni
2′ · +5
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
36′ · +4
Darius Bazley
33′ · -5
Luguentz Dort
32′ · +3
Al Horford
29′ · +7
George Hill
25′ · +6
Hamidou Diallo
20′ · -3
Mike Muscala
19′ · -8
Theo Maledon
20′ · -8
Kenrich Williams
11′ · -4
Aleksej Pokusevski
14′ · +3
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. UTA and OKC.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Utah Jazz
O'Neale, Mitchell, Conley, Bogdanovic, and Gobert played 15.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
O'Neale, Mitchell, Bogdanovic, Gobert, and Clarkson played 7.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Niang, Conley, Gobert, Clarkson, and Ingles played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 11 points.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Dort, Horford, and Hill played 23.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Diallo, Williams, Maledon, Pokusevski, and Muscala played 7.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Diallo, Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Maledon, and Muscala played 5.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Utah Jazz
O'Neale, Mitchell, Conley, Gobert, and Ingles played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Conley, Bogdanovic, Gobert, Clarkson, and Ingles played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
O'Neale, Mitchell, Favors, Bogdanovic, and Ingles played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
O'Neale, Mitchell, Favors, Bogdanovic, and Clarkson played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Niang, Conley, Favors, Clarkson, and Ingles played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Niang, Oni, Conley, Gobert, and Clarkson played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Mitchell, Favors, Bogdanovic, Clarkson, and Ingles played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
O'Neale, Mitchell, Favors, Clarkson, and Ingles played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Williams, Bazley, Dort, Maledon, and Horford played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Diallo, Gilgeous-Alexander, Maledon, Pokusevski, and Muscala played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Diallo, Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Pokusevski, and Muscala played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Diallo, Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Dort, and Muscala played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Pokusevski, Horford, and Hill played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

