SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 28 December 2020

UTA110–109OKC
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 91% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 39 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ OKC winsUTA wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when OKC leads and falls when UTA does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · UTA

Rudy Gobert
Donovan Mitchell
Bojan Bogdanovic
Royce O'Neale
Mike Conley

Gobert · Mitchell · Bogdanovic · O'Neale · Conley

Closing lineup · OKC

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Darius Bazley
Luguentz Dort
Al Horford
George Hill

Gilgeous-Alexander · Bazley · Dort · Horford · Hill

Q1Q2Q3Q4
UTA
Rudy Gobert

Rudy Gobert

37′ · +5

Donovan Mitchell

Donovan Mitchell

35′ · -4

Bojan Bogdanovic

Bojan Bogdanovic

35′ · -3

Royce O'Neale

Royce O'Neale

34′ · +1

Mike Conley

Mike Conley

32′ · +1

Joe Ingles

Joe Ingles

20′ · 0

Derrick Favors

Derrick Favors

11′ · -4

Jordan Clarkson

Jordan Clarkson

26′ · +5

Georges Niang

Georges Niang

8′ · -1

Miye Oni

Miye Oni

2′ · +5

OKC
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

36′ · +4

Darius Bazley

Darius Bazley

33′ · -5

Luguentz Dort

Luguentz Dort

32′ · +3

Al Horford

Al Horford

29′ · +7

George Hill

George Hill

25′ · +6

Hamidou Diallo

Hamidou Diallo

20′ · -3

Mike Muscala

Mike Muscala

19′ · -8

Theo Maledon

Theo Maledon

20′ · -8

Kenrich Williams

Kenrich Williams

11′ · -4

Aleksej Pokusevski

Aleksej Pokusevski

14′ · +3

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. UTA and OKC.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Utah Jazz

  • O'Neale, Mitchell, Conley, Bogdanovic, and Gobert played 15.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • O'Neale, Mitchell, Bogdanovic, Gobert, and Clarkson played 7.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Niang, Conley, Gobert, Clarkson, and Ingles played 4.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 11 points.

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Dort, Horford, and Hill played 23.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Diallo, Williams, Maledon, Pokusevski, and Muscala played 7.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Diallo, Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Maledon, and Muscala played 5.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Utah Jazz

  • O'Neale, Mitchell, Conley, Gobert, and Ingles played 3.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Conley, Bogdanovic, Gobert, Clarkson, and Ingles played 3.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • O'Neale, Mitchell, Favors, Bogdanovic, and Ingles played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • O'Neale, Mitchell, Favors, Bogdanovic, and Clarkson played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Niang, Conley, Favors, Clarkson, and Ingles played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Niang, Oni, Conley, Gobert, and Clarkson played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Mitchell, Favors, Bogdanovic, Clarkson, and Ingles played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • O'Neale, Mitchell, Favors, Clarkson, and Ingles played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Williams, Bazley, Dort, Maledon, and Horford played 3.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Diallo, Gilgeous-Alexander, Maledon, Pokusevski, and Muscala played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Diallo, Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Pokusevski, and Muscala played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Diallo, Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Dort, and Muscala played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Pokusevski, Horford, and Hill played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Scoring
219
combined points
5.2 below the season average (224.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

25 calls reviewed2 errors admitted by the NBA
Turnover: Inbound Turnover · 01:04.5
Donovan Mitchell → Thunder
After the made basket, Mitchell (UTA) never establishes himself out of bounds prior to the entry pass.
01:36
Mike Conley → Al Horford
Conley (UTA) is airborne when Horford (OKC) makes clean ball contact that causes Conley to temporarily fumble the ball. There should not be a jump ball whistle after Conley regains possession and comes back to the ground.