SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 20 January 2021

ORL97–96MIN
Is it worth watching?
Recommended

It was more exciting than 58% of NBA games since 2017

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ MIN winsORL wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIN leads and falls when ORL does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · ORL

Nikola Vucevic
Aaron Gordon
James Ennis III
Cole Anthony
Evan Fournier

Vucevic · Gordon · Ennis · Anthony · Fournier

Closing lineup · MIN

Malik Beasley
Josh Okogie
Jarred Vanderbilt
Jordan McLaughlin
Jarrett Culver

Beasley · Okogie · Vanderbilt · McLaughlin · Culver

Q1Q2Q3Q4
ORL
Nikola Vucevic

Nikola Vucevic

43′ · +10

Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon

36′ · +9

James Ennis III

James Ennis III

28′ · +15

Cole Anthony

Cole Anthony

28′ · +10

Evan Fournier

Evan Fournier

28′ · +15

Khem Birch

Khem Birch

26′ · -12

Terrence Ross

Terrence Ross

24′ · -16

Dwayne Bacon

Dwayne Bacon

20′ · -14

Gary Clark

Gary Clark

8′ · -12

MIN
Malik Beasley

Malik Beasley

34′ · -7

D'Angelo Russell

D'Angelo Russell

32′ · -13

Naz Reid

Naz Reid

29′ · -4

Josh Okogie

Josh Okogie

25′ · -14

Jarred Vanderbilt

Jarred Vanderbilt

18′ · -12

Jordan McLaughlin

Jordan McLaughlin

21′ · +4

Anthony Edwards

Anthony Edwards

23′ · +13

Jaden McDaniels

Jaden McDaniels

26′ · +19

Ed Davis

Ed Davis

18′ · +3

Jarrett Culver

Jarrett Culver

15′ · +6

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ORL and MIN.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Orlando Magic

  • Anthony, Vucevic, Fournier, Ennis, and Gordon played 15.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 16 points.

  • Anthony, Vucevic, Fournier, Ennis, and Birch played 6.5 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Bacon, Vucevic, Ross, Birch, and Gordon played 6.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Russell, Culver, Edwards, McDaniels, and Davis played 13.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Russell, Beasley, Okogie, Vanderbilt, and Reid played 12.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.

  • Russell, Beasley, Okogie, McLaughlin, and Reid played 4.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Orlando Magic

  • Bacon, Anthony, Vucevic, Ross, and Birch played 5.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Bacon, Clark, Ross, Birch, and Gordon played 4.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Vucevic, Ross, Fournier, Ennis, and Gordon played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Bacon, Clark, Vucevic, Ross, and Gordon played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Vucevic, Ross, Fournier, Birch, and Gordon played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Vucevic, Fournier, Ennis, Birch, and Gordon played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Beasley, McLaughlin, Edwards, McDaniels, and Davis played 4.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Beasley, Okogie, Vanderbilt, McLaughlin, and Reid played 3.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Beasley, Okogie, McLaughlin, Reid, and McDaniels played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Beasley, McLaughlin, Reid, Edwards, and McDaniels played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Beasley, Vanderbilt, McLaughlin, Reid, and Edwards played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Russell, Beasley, Okogie, Reid, and McDaniels played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • McLaughlin, Culver, Edwards, McDaniels, and Davis played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Scoring
193
combined points
31.2 below the season average (224.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

10 calls reviewed3 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Shooting · 00:19.1
Evan Fournier → Malik Beasley
Fournier (ORL) makes contact to Beasley's (MIN) arms that affects his driving shot attempt. When Fournier swipes down, he makes contact with the ball and does not dislodge it and then makes contact to the arm when Beasley is still in a shooting motion.
Foul: Offensive · 00:53.5
Jordan McLaughlin → Aaron Gordon
McLaughlin (MIN) is not in the path of Gordon (ORL) when he sets the screen and continues to back into him to make contact that affects his ability to defend the play.
Foul: Shooting · 01:24.3
Terrence Ross → Jordan McLaughlin
Ross (ORL) moves alongside of McLaughlin's (MIN) path to the basket and places an arm at his side. The contact is marginal and does not affect McLaughlin's play at the basket.