Win probability changed during the game. · 20 January 2021
It was more exciting than 58% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIN leads and falls when ORL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · ORL
Vucevic · Gordon · Ennis · Anthony · Fournier
Closing lineup · MIN
Beasley · Okogie · Vanderbilt · McLaughlin · Culver
Nikola Vucevic
43′ · +10
Aaron Gordon
36′ · +9
James Ennis III
28′ · +15
Cole Anthony
28′ · +10
Evan Fournier
28′ · +15
Khem Birch
26′ · -12
Terrence Ross
24′ · -16
Dwayne Bacon
20′ · -14
Gary Clark
8′ · -12
Malik Beasley
34′ · -7
D'Angelo Russell
32′ · -13
Naz Reid
29′ · -4
Josh Okogie
25′ · -14
Jarred Vanderbilt
18′ · -12
Jordan McLaughlin
21′ · +4
Anthony Edwards
23′ · +13
Jaden McDaniels
26′ · +19
Ed Davis
18′ · +3
Jarrett Culver
15′ · +6
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ORL and MIN.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Orlando Magic
Anthony, Vucevic, Fournier, Ennis, and Gordon played 15.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 16 points.
Anthony, Vucevic, Fournier, Ennis, and Birch played 6.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Bacon, Vucevic, Ross, Birch, and Gordon played 6.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Russell, Culver, Edwards, McDaniels, and Davis played 13.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Russell, Beasley, Okogie, Vanderbilt, and Reid played 12.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Russell, Beasley, Okogie, McLaughlin, and Reid played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Orlando Magic
Bacon, Anthony, Vucevic, Ross, and Birch played 5.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Bacon, Clark, Ross, Birch, and Gordon played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Vucevic, Ross, Fournier, Ennis, and Gordon played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Bacon, Clark, Vucevic, Ross, and Gordon played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Vucevic, Ross, Fournier, Birch, and Gordon played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Vucevic, Fournier, Ennis, Birch, and Gordon played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Beasley, McLaughlin, Edwards, McDaniels, and Davis played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Beasley, Okogie, Vanderbilt, McLaughlin, and Reid played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Beasley, Okogie, McLaughlin, Reid, and McDaniels played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Beasley, McLaughlin, Reid, Edwards, and McDaniels played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Beasley, Vanderbilt, McLaughlin, Reid, and Edwards played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Russell, Beasley, Okogie, Reid, and McDaniels played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
McLaughlin, Culver, Edwards, McDaniels, and Davis played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

