Win probability changed during the game. · 21 March 2021
It was more exciting than 99% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 22 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when NYK leads and falls when PHI does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · PHI
Simmons · Harris · Green · Milton · Thybulle
Closing lineup · NYK
Bullock · Randle · Barrett · Noel · Burks
Ben Simmons
37′ · -3
Tobias Harris
36′ · 0
Danny Green
33′ · -2
Furkan Korkmaz
28′ · -2
Tony Bradley
19′ · +1
Dwight Howard
32′ · -2
Mike Scott
16′ · +1
Shake Milton
29′ · +5
Matisse Thybulle
18′ · +3
Tyrese Maxey
15′ · +4
Reggie Bullock Jr.
47′ · +1
Julius Randle
46′ · +6
RJ Barrett
39′ · +5
Nerlens Noel
36′ · -1
Immanuel Quickley
26′ · +2
Frank Ntilikina
18′ · -2
Mitchell Robinson
17′ · -3
Alec Burks
30′ · -6
Obi Toppin
7′ · -7
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. PHI and NYK.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Philadelphia 76ers
Simmons, Korkmaz, Bradley, Green, and Harris played 15.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Milton, Thybulle, Maxey, Scott, and Howard played 10.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Simmons, Korkmaz, Green, Harris, and Howard played 5.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
New York Knicks
Barrett, Quickley, Noel, Bullock, and Randle played 19.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Barrett, Burks, Noel, Bullock, and Randle played 9.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Ntilikina, Robinson, Burks, Bullock, and Randle played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Philadelphia 76ers
Milton, Thybulle, Maxey, Harris, and Howard played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Simmons, Milton, Green, Harris, and Howard played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Simmons, Korkmaz, Bradley, Milton, and Green played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Simmons, Milton, Thybulle, Harris, and Howard played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Simmons, Korkmaz, Milton, Scott, and Howard played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Simmons, Korkmaz, Green, Scott, and Howard played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
New York Knicks
Ntilikina, Robinson, Toppin, Burks, and Bullock played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Barrett, Quickley, Burks, Noel, and Randle played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Ntilikina, Robinson, Barrett, Burks, and Randle played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Ntilikina, Burks, Noel, Bullock, and Randle played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Ntilikina, Robinson, Barrett, Bullock, and Randle played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Robinson, Toppin, Quickley, Burks, and Bullock played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Ntilikina, Barrett, Noel, Bullock, and Randle played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

