SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 27 December 2021

MEM114–113PHX
Is it worth watching?
Recommended

It was more exciting than 79% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 18 times

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ PHX winsMEM wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when PHX leads and falls when MEM does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · MEM

Desmond Bane
Ja Morant
Steven Adams
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Kyle Anderson

Bane · Morant · Adams · Jackson · Anderson

Closing lineup · PHX

Devin Booker
Cameron Johnson
Chris Paul
Mikal Bridges
Jalen Smith

Booker · Johnson · Paul · Bridges · Smith

Q1Q2Q3Q4
MEM
Desmond Bane

Desmond Bane

37′ · +3

John Konchar

John Konchar

34′ · +3

Ja Morant

Ja Morant

34′ · +15

Steven Adams

Steven Adams

31′ · +14

Jaren Jackson Jr.

Jaren Jackson Jr.

29′ · +4

Kyle Anderson

Kyle Anderson

23′ · -7

Killian Tillie

Killian Tillie

19′ · -3

Xavier Tillman

Xavier Tillman

5′ · -5

Tyus Jones

Tyus Jones

18′ · -12

Brandon Clarke

Brandon Clarke

11′ · -7

PHX
Devin Booker

Devin Booker

37′ · -8

Cameron Johnson

Cameron Johnson

36′ · 0

Chris Paul

Chris Paul

35′ · -5

Mikal Bridges

Mikal Bridges

32′ · -15

JaVale McGee

JaVale McGee

22′ · -17

Jalen Smith

Jalen Smith

29′ · +19

Cameron Payne

Cameron Payne

24′ · +8

Landry Shamet

Landry Shamet

14′ · +16

Elfrid Payton

Elfrid Payton

9′ · -3

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MEM and PHX.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Memphis Grizzlies

  • Jackson, Morant, Konchar, Bane, and Adams played 14.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 17 points.

  • Morant, Konchar, Bane, Adams, and Anderson played 7.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Morant, Tillie, Bane, Adams, and Anderson played 5.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

Phoenix Suns

  • Paul, Booker, Bridges, Johnson, and McGee played 9.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 12 points.

  • Paul, Booker, Bridges, Johnson, and Smith played 6.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Booker, Payne, Shamet, Johnson, and Smith played 4.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 9 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Memphis Grizzlies

  • Jones, Jackson, Clarke, Konchar, and Bane played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Jones, Jackson, Clarke, Tillie, and Konchar played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Jones, Jackson, Clarke, Konchar, and Anderson played 3.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Jones, Morant, Tillie, Adams, and Anderson played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Jones, Tillie, Tillman, Bane, and Anderson played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Jones, Jackson, Tillie, Konchar, and Tillman played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Morant, Tillie, Tillman, Bane, and Anderson played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

Phoenix Suns

  • Paul, Payne, Johnson, McGee, and Payton played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Paul, Payne, Shamet, Johnson, and Smith played 3.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Paul, Booker, Bridges, Shamet, and Smith played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Booker, Payne, Johnson, Smith, and Payton played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Booker, Payne, Bridges, Smith, and McGee played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Booker, Payne, Bridges, Johnson, and McGee played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Paul, Booker, Payne, Bridges, and McGee played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Paul, Booker, Payne, Bridges, and Smith played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Paul, Bridges, Shamet, Johnson, and Smith played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Paul, Bridges, Johnson, McGee, and Payton played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Paul, Booker, Bridges, Smith, and McGee played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
17.071
100% of capacity
Mortgage Matchup Center · Phoenix
Scoring
227
combined points
5.8 above the season average (221.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

31 calls reviewed4 errors admitted by the NBA
Turnover: Traveling · 00:03.7
Ja Morant → Suns
Morant (MEM) establishes his left foot as his pivot foot and he slides his pivot foot at the start of his dribble.
Turnover: 24 Second Violation · 00:08.1
Grizzlies → Suns
A shot clock violation is called on Memphis, however, the ball makes contact with the rim during the shot attempt. This violation should have been reviewed.
Foul: Loose Ball · 00:09.8
Steven Adams → Jalen Smith
Adams (MEM) grabs and holds Smith's (PHX) left arm during rebounding, affecting Smith's ability to secure the loose ball.
Foul: Loose Ball · 00:35.7
Chris Paul → Desmond Bane
Paul (PHX) and Booker (PHX) initiate contact across Bane's (MEM) left and right arm, respectively, and affect Bane's ability to retrieve the loose ball.