Win probability changed during the game. · 27 December 2021
It was more exciting than 79% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 18 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when PHX leads and falls when MEM does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · MEM
Bane · Morant · Adams · Jackson · Anderson
Closing lineup · PHX
Booker · Johnson · Paul · Bridges · Smith
Desmond Bane
37′ · +3
John Konchar
34′ · +3
Ja Morant
34′ · +15
Steven Adams
31′ · +14
Jaren Jackson Jr.
29′ · +4
Kyle Anderson
23′ · -7
Killian Tillie
19′ · -3
Xavier Tillman
5′ · -5
Tyus Jones
18′ · -12
Brandon Clarke
11′ · -7
Devin Booker
37′ · -8
Cameron Johnson
36′ · 0
Chris Paul
35′ · -5
Mikal Bridges
32′ · -15
JaVale McGee
22′ · -17
Jalen Smith
29′ · +19
Cameron Payne
24′ · +8
Landry Shamet
14′ · +16
Elfrid Payton
9′ · -3
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MEM and PHX.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Memphis Grizzlies
Jackson, Morant, Konchar, Bane, and Adams played 14.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 17 points.
Morant, Konchar, Bane, Adams, and Anderson played 7.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Morant, Tillie, Bane, Adams, and Anderson played 5.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Phoenix Suns
Paul, Booker, Bridges, Johnson, and McGee played 9.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 12 points.
Paul, Booker, Bridges, Johnson, and Smith played 6.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Booker, Payne, Shamet, Johnson, and Smith played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Memphis Grizzlies
Jones, Jackson, Clarke, Konchar, and Bane played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Jones, Jackson, Clarke, Tillie, and Konchar played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Jones, Jackson, Clarke, Konchar, and Anderson played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Jones, Morant, Tillie, Adams, and Anderson played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Jones, Tillie, Tillman, Bane, and Anderson played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Jones, Jackson, Tillie, Konchar, and Tillman played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Morant, Tillie, Tillman, Bane, and Anderson played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Phoenix Suns
Paul, Payne, Johnson, McGee, and Payton played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Paul, Payne, Shamet, Johnson, and Smith played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Paul, Booker, Bridges, Shamet, and Smith played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Booker, Payne, Johnson, Smith, and Payton played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Booker, Payne, Bridges, Smith, and McGee played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Booker, Payne, Bridges, Johnson, and McGee played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Paul, Booker, Payne, Bridges, and McGee played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Paul, Booker, Payne, Bridges, and Smith played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Paul, Bridges, Shamet, Johnson, and Smith played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Paul, Bridges, Johnson, McGee, and Payton played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Paul, Booker, Bridges, Smith, and McGee played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

