SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 31 December 2021

CHI108–106IND
Is it worth watching?

The ESPN data for this game contradicts the official result, so it cannot be rated

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ IND winsCHI wins ↓

The last point of this curve falls on IND's side, but CHI won 108-106. It is an ESPN error at the close of the game: the curve is shown as it is and no conclusion is drawn from it.

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when IND leads and falls when CHI does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · CHI

Zach LaVine
DeMar DeRozan
Nikola Vucevic
Coby White
Ayo Dosunmu

LaVine · DeRozan · Vucevic · White · Dosunmu

Closing lineup · IND

Domantas Sabonis
Caris LeVert
Justin Holiday
Torrey Craig
Oshae Brissett

Sabonis · LeVert · Holiday · Craig · Brissett

Q1Q2Q3Q4
CHI
Zach LaVine

Zach LaVine

36′ · -8

DeMar DeRozan

DeMar DeRozan

35′ · +18

Nikola Vucevic

Nikola Vucevic

34′ · -1

Coby White

Coby White

33′ · +1

Javonte Green

Javonte Green

28′ · +3

Ayo Dosunmu

Ayo Dosunmu

22′ · -8

Matt Thomas

Matt Thomas

20′ · +8

Derrick Jones Jr.

Derrick Jones Jr.

14′ · -3

Tyler Cook

Tyler Cook

14′ · +3

Troy Brown Jr.

Troy Brown Jr.

4′ · -3

IND
Domantas Sabonis

Domantas Sabonis

40′ · +1

Caris LeVert

Caris LeVert

37′ · +1

Justin Holiday

Justin Holiday

35′ · -6

Duane Washington Jr.

Duane Washington Jr.

30′ · 0

Myles Turner

Myles Turner

18′ · -9

Torrey Craig

Torrey Craig

32′ · -1

Oshae Brissett

Oshae Brissett

31′ · +4

Keifer Sykes

Keifer Sykes

11′ · -3

Nate Hinton

Nate Hinton

2′ · +2

Goga Bitadze

Goga Bitadze

5′ · +1

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. CHI and IND.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Chicago Bulls

  • White, Green, DeRozan, Vucevic, and LaVine played 19.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Jones, Cook, Thomas, Dosunmu, and DeRozan played 6.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Thomas, Green, Dosunmu, Vucevic, and LaVine played 5.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

Indiana Pacers

  • Turner, Sabonis, LeVert, Washington, and Holiday played 9.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Sabonis, LeVert, Craig, Brissett, and Holiday played 9.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Sabonis, LeVert, Craig, Brissett, and Washington played 9.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

▸See every lineup of the game

Chicago Bulls

  • Jones, Cook, White, Thomas, and DeRozan played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • White, Green, Dosunmu, Vucevic, and LaVine played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Jones, Thomas, Dosunmu, Vucevic, and LaVine played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Brown, Cook, White, Thomas, and DeRozan played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Jones, Cook, White, DeRozan, and LaVine played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Jones, White, Dosunmu, Vucevic, and LaVine played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • White, Thomas, DeRozan, Vucevic, and LaVine played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

Indiana Pacers

  • Turner, Sykes, Craig, Brissett, and Holiday played 4.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Sabonis, LeVert, Bitadze, Washington, and Holiday played 3.1 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Sykes, Sabonis, Craig, Brissett, and Holiday played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Sykes, Sabonis, Craig, Brissett, and Washington played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Sabonis, LeVert, Brissett, Washington, and Holiday played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Turner, Sykes, Brissett, Washington, and Holiday played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Turner, Sykes, Craig, Washington, and Holiday played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Turner, LeVert, Craig, Brissett, and Holiday played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
17.515
97.7% of capacity
Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Indianapolis
Scoring
214
combined points
7.2 below the season average (221.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

17 calls reviewed4 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Personal · 00:14.8
DeMar DeRozan → Torrey Craig
DeRozan (CHI) initiates body contact with Craig (IND) that affects his ability to control the loose ball. The ball then goes out of bounds off of Craig's leg, although possession is incorrectly awarded to the Pacers.
Turnover: Traveling · 00:41.0
Zach LaVine → Pacers
LaVine (CHI) leaves his feet and returns to the floor without having released the ball.
Foul: Shooting · 01:30.8
Javonte Green → Caris LeVert
Green (CHI) moves into LeVert's (IND) arm/body and initiates contact that affects his shot attempt at the rim.
Foul: Personal · 01:46.1
DeMar DeRozan → Caris LeVert
DeRozan (CHI) makes contact to LeVert's (IND) arm that causes him to lose control of the ball.