Miami Heat – Milwaukee Bucks · NBA

Win probability changed during the game. · 2 March 2022

MIA119–120MIL

Is it worth watching?

Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 91% of NBA games since 2017

· The win probability swung between the two teams 28 times
· It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ MIL winsMIA wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIL leads and falls when MIA does.

This is how the game was decided.

Giannis Antetokounmpo decided it, the Milwaukee Bucks player with the most points (28, with 17 rebounds and 5 assists; +7 with him on the floor); the winner's best plus-minus was Jrue Holiday's (+12). The criterion: the winner's points in the box score; plus-minus says who was on the floor when the game opened up.

The game-winner in Milwaukee Bucks 120-119 Miami Heat (March 2, 2022) was hit by Jrue Holiday: a layup with 1.9 s left in the fourth quarter, putting the Milwaukee Bucks up 120-119. They never trailed again.

The biggest run of Milwaukee Bucks 120-119 Miami Heat (March 2, 2022) was a 10-0 run by the Miami Heat in the second quarter (from 10:32 to 9:04), from 31-41 to 41-41. The Milwaukee Bucks' best was a 9-0 run in the third quarter (from 7:34 to 5:27), from 71-79 to 80-79.

▸See where these figures come from

Play: Jrue Holiday makes driving layup.

I count as the game-winner the basket that puts the winning team ahead for good. Source: the official NBA play-by-play (since 2002-03) and each team's official box scores.

A run here is consecutive points by one team without the opponent scoring. Source: the official NBA play-by-play (since 2002-03) and each team's official box scores.

Source: the game's official box score and play-by-play.

Jrue Holiday decided this game: his points put his team ahead with 1.9 seconds left in the fourth quarter, and the opponent never led again.

It is one of the 3 games he has decided this way in the NBA since the 2002-03 season.

His profile shows the games Holiday decided

▸See where these figures come from

A game is decided by the last basket that puts a team ahead in the final ten seconds of the fourth quarter or of an overtime, if that team wins.

2 March 2022 · The source is the ESPN play-by-play, play espn:401360755:669; the date is the one on the NBA box score.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · MIA

Adebayo · Butler · Vincent · Tucker · Herro

Closing lineup · MIL

Holiday · Middleton · Antetokounmpo · Portis · Matthews

Q1Q2Q3Q4

MIA

Bam Adebayo

37′ · -3

Jimmy Butler III

35′ · -21

Gabe Vincent

32′ · -1

P.J. Tucker

27′ · -19

Duncan Robinson

22′ · -7

Tyler Herro

35′ · +8

Caleb Martin

20′ · +23

Dewayne Dedmon

11′ · +2

Max Strus

22′ · +13

MIL

Jrue Holiday

38′ · +12

Khris Middleton

36′ · +8

Giannis Antetokounmpo

34′ · +7

Bobby Portis

32′ · +10

Grayson Allen

24′ · +1

Wesley Matthews

28′ · +12

Serge Ibaka

19′ · -14

Jevon Carter

12′ · -10

Jordan Nwora

5′ · -6

DeAndre' Bembry

11′ · -15

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MIA and MIL.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Miami Heat

Adebayo, Robinson, Vincent, Tucker, and Butler played 12.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Adebayo, Martin, Vincent, Strus, and Herro played 11.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 16 points.
Adebayo, Vincent, Herro, Tucker, and Butler played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

Milwaukee Bucks

Portis, Holiday, Matthews, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo played 10.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 15 points.
Portis, Allen, Holiday, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo played 9.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Portis, Allen, Holiday, Matthews, and Middleton played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Miami Heat

Robinson, Herro, Tucker, Butler, and Dedmon played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Adebayo, Martin, Strus, Herro, and Butler played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Adebayo, Robinson, Herro, Tucker, and Butler played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Strus, Herro, Tucker, Butler, and Dedmon played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Martin, Robinson, Herro, Butler, and Dedmon played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Martin, Vincent, Strus, Herro, and Dedmon played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Adebayo, Vincent, Strus, Herro, and Butler played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Martin, Strus, Herro, Butler, and Dedmon played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

Milwaukee Bucks

Bembry, Allen, Ibaka, Holiday, and Antetokounmpo played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Portis, Carter, Ibaka, Matthews, and Middleton played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Carter, Nwora, Ibaka, Matthews, and Antetokounmpo played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Bembry, Nwora, Ibaka, Holiday, and Antetokounmpo played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Carter, Ibaka, Holiday, Matthews, and Middleton played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Allen, Carter, Ibaka, Matthews, and Middleton played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Portis, Bembry, Allen, Holiday, and Middleton played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Carter, Ibaka, Matthews, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Allen, Carter, Ibaka, Matthews, and Antetokounmpo played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Portis, Bembry, Holiday, Matthews, and Middleton played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Portis, Bembry, Allen, Holiday, and Antetokounmpo played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Allen, Ibaka, Holiday, Matthews, and Antetokounmpo played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Ibaka, Holiday, Matthews, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Jrue Holiday covered 4.79 km, more than anyone in the game.

Tyler Herro touched the ball 88 times, a game high.
Tyler Herro made 60 passes, a game high.
Bobby Portis Jr. defended 8 shots at the rim, a game high, and opponents made 5.
Giannis Antetokounmpo had 22 rebound chances, a game high.

▸See what was measured for each player

Miami Heat

Player	km	km/h	Touches	Passes
Bam Adebayo	4.59	7.0	76	55
Tyler Herro	4.49	7.1	88	60
Jimmy Butler III	4.41	7.0	63	40
Gabe Vincent	4.07	7.2	69	48
P.J. Tucker	3.43	7.1	31	26
Max Strus	2.88	7.4	34	24
Duncan Robinson	2.86	7.5	27	20
Caleb Martin	2.78	8.1	29	20
Dewayne Dedmon	1.37	7.0	20	16

Milwaukee Bucks

Player	km	km/h	Touches	Passes
Jrue Holiday	4.79	7.0	82	55
Khris Middleton	4.34	6.7	65	38
Giannis Antetokounmpo	4.14	6.7	80	45
Bobby Portis Jr.	3.96	7.0	51	36
Wesley Matthews	3.46	6.8	13

The figures come from the NBA's optical tracking (NBA.com) for this game; speed is each player's average while on the floor.

Who stood out on defense during the season

These figures cover the whole 2021-22 regular season, not this game.

Miami Heat

Jimmy Butler III recovered 1.1 loose balls per game over his 57 games.
He ranks 1 of 386 in the league.
Max Strus drew 0.22 charges per game over his 67 games.
He ranks 15 of 386 in the league.
Dewayne Dedmon drew 0.18 charges per game over his 67 games.
He ranks 20 of 386 in the league.

Milwaukee Bucks

Jrue Holiday deflected 2.8 passes per game over his 66 games.
He ranks 14 of 386 in the league.
Giannis Antetokounmpo defended 5.1 shots at the rim per game over his 67 games, and opponents made 11 fewer out of every 100 than usual.
He ranks 7 of 131 in the league.
Bobby Portis contested 9.0 shots per game over his 72 games.
He ranks 25 of 386 in the league.

Hustle figures come from the hustle stats the NBA publishes (NBA.com) and rim defense comes from its tracking; both cover the regular season. For each player in this game we show the figure that ranks him highest in the league, and for each team, the three best ranked. Ranks count players with at least 30 games and, at the rim, at least 4 defended shots per game.

The Milwaukee Bucks have won 64 of their 154 games against the Miami Heat.

64-90record of the Milwaukee Bucks · NBA 1988-89 – 2025-26, regular season and playoffs

1-2in 2025-26

See the full head-to-head in the Analyst

See where it comes from

Official NBA box scores, regular season and playoffs, 1988-89 – 2025-26. It counts every game between the two teams that the house holds, this one included.

SportiveWorld knows much more about this game

Game context

Attendance

17.341

100% of capacity

Fiserv Forum · Milwaukee

Scoring

239

combined points

17.8 above the season average (221.2)

⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

15 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA

Foul: Shooting · 01:39.0

Bam Adebayo → Giannis Antetokounmpo

Adebayo (MIA) swipes down and avoids making contact with Antetokounmpo's (MIL) arm during his shooting motion, and does not affect his driving shot attempt.