SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 17 November 2022

BKN109–107POR
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 93% of NBA games since 2017

  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 25 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ POR winsBKN wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when POR leads and falls when BKN does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · BKN

Kevin Durant
Royce O'Neale
Joe Harris
Nic Claxton
Yuta Watanabe

Durant · O'Neale · Harris · Claxton · Watanabe

Closing lineup · POR

Damian Lillard
Jerami Grant
Josh Hart
Anfernee Simons
Justise Winslow

Lillard · Grant · Hart · Simons · Winslow

Q1Q2Q3Q4
BKN
Kevin Durant

Kevin Durant

39′ · +15

Royce O'Neale

Royce O'Neale

37′ · -1

Joe Harris

Joe Harris

33′ · +10

Nic Claxton

Nic Claxton

25′ · -16

Edmond Sumner

Edmond Sumner

6′ · +4

Seth Curry

Seth Curry

27′ · +5

Cam Thomas

Cam Thomas

7′ · -7

Yuta Watanabe

Yuta Watanabe

29′ · -10

Ben Simmons

Ben Simmons

32′ · +13

Patty Mills

Patty Mills

4′ · -3

POR
Damian Lillard

Damian Lillard

38′ · -2

Jerami Grant

Jerami Grant

37′ · -8

Josh Hart

Josh Hart

30′ · +1

Anfernee Simons

Anfernee Simons

29′ · -16

Jusuf Nurkic

Jusuf Nurkic

25′ · +5

Justise Winslow

Justise Winslow

28′ · +10

Drew Eubanks

Drew Eubanks

18′ · -4

Shaedon Sharpe

Shaedon Sharpe

21′ · 0

Nassir Little

Nassir Little

13′ · +7

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. BKN and POR.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Brooklyn Nets

  • O'Neale, Simmons, Watanabe, Durant, and Curry played 6.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • O'Neale, Sumner, Claxton, Durant, and Harris played 6.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • O'Neale, Watanabe, Claxton, Curry, and Harris played 5.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.

Portland Trail Blazers

  • Hart, Simons, Lillard, Grant, and Nurkic played 9.4 minutes together.

  • Winslow, Hart, Lillard, Grant, and Nurkic played 5.3 minutes together.

  • Winslow, Hart, Simons, Lillard, and Grant played 5.0 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each Portland Trail Blazers lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

▸See every lineup of the game

Brooklyn Nets

  • O'Neale, Simmons, Watanabe, Durant, and Harris played 4.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Simmons, Watanabe, Durant, Curry, and Harris played 3.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Simmons, Claxton, Durant, Curry, and Harris played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Simmons, Watanabe, Thomas, Durant, and Curry played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • O'Neale, Simmons, Watanabe, Claxton, and Durant played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • O'Neale, Simmons, Thomas, Durant, and Harris played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • O'Neale, Simmons, Claxton, Mills, and Harris played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • O'Neale, Simmons, Durant, Curry, and Harris played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • O'Neale, Simmons, Claxton, Durant, and Harris played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • O'Neale, Simmons, Watanabe, Mills, and Harris played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • O'Neale, Watanabe, Claxton, Durant, and Curry played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • O'Neale, Claxton, Thomas, Durant, and Curry played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

Portland Trail Blazers

  • Hart, Simons, Eubanks, Lillard, and Grant played 4.4 minutes together.

  • Winslow, Little, Sharpe, Lillard, and Nurkic played 3.8 minutes together.

  • Hart, Eubanks, Sharpe, Lillard, and Grant played 3.3 minutes together.

  • Winslow, Simons, Little, Sharpe, and Nurkic played 3.2 minutes together.

  • Winslow, Simons, Eubanks, Little, and Sharpe played 3.1 minutes together.

  • Winslow, Hart, Eubanks, Lillard, and Grant played 2.3 minutes together.

  • Winslow, Sharpe, Lillard, Grant, and Nurkic played 2.1 minutes together.

  • Winslow, Simons, Eubanks, Sharpe, and Grant played 1.5 minutes together.

  • Winslow, Eubanks, Little, Sharpe, and Grant played 1.4 minutes together.

  • Simons, Eubanks, Little, Sharpe, and Grant played 1.2 minutes together.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
19.393
99.9% of capacity
Moda Center · Portland
Scoring
216
combined points
13.4 below the season average (229.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

17 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Defense 3 Second · 01:13.0
Josh Hart → Nets
Hart (POR) is in the paint for longer than three seconds without imminently actively guarding an opponent.