Win probability changed during the game. · 13 January 2023
It was more exciting than 97% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 22 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when IND leads and falls when ATL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · ATL
Okongwu · Murray · Hunter · Collins · Johnson
Closing lineup · IND
Hield · Nembhard · Jackson · Smith · Brissett
Onyeka Okongwu
39′ · +19
Trae Young
37′ · +20
Dejounte Murray
36′ · +7
De'Andre Hunter
34′ · +8
John Collins
27′ · -2
Bogdan Bogdanovic
27′ · -12
Jalen Johnson
14′ · -9
Aaron Holiday
11′ · -4
AJ Griffin
14′ · -17
Bennedict Mathurin
39′ · +13
Buddy Hield
38′ · -7
Andrew Nembhard
34′ · 0
Isaiah Jackson
28′ · -17
Chris Duarte
26′ · -24
T.J. McConnell
24′ · +5
Jalen Smith
20′ · +17
Oshae Brissett
31′ · +3
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ATL and IND.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Atlanta Hawks
Murray, Collins, Young, Hunter, and Okongwu played 16.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 20 points.
Murray, Young, Hunter, Okongwu, and Bogdanovic played 7.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Murray, Collins, Johnson, Griffin, and Bogdanovic played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Indiana Pacers
Hield, Nembhard, Duarte, Jackson, and Mathurin played 12.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 14 points.
Hield, Brissett, Duarte, Jackson, and McConnell played 7.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Brissett, Nembhard, Smith, Mathurin, and McConnell played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Atlanta Hawks
Holiday, Young, Okongwu, Johnson, and Bogdanovic played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 12 points.
Holiday, Young, Hunter, Okongwu, and Griffin played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Murray, Okongwu, Johnson, Griffin, and Bogdanovic played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Collins, Holiday, Young, Johnson, and Bogdanovic played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
Murray, Collins, Hunter, Griffin, and Bogdanovic played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Murray, Collins, Hunter, Okongwu, and Bogdanovic played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Holiday, Young, Hunter, Okongwu, and Bogdanovic played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Murray, Young, Hunter, Okongwu, and Griffin played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Indiana Pacers
Hield, Brissett, Nembhard, Jackson, and Mathurin played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Hield, Nembhard, Smith, Mathurin, and McConnell played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Hield, Brissett, Nembhard, Smith, and Mathurin played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Brissett, Nembhard, Smith, Duarte, and Mathurin played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Brissett, Smith, Duarte, Mathurin, and McConnell played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Hield, Brissett, Jackson, Mathurin, and McConnell played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Hield, Brissett, Smith, Mathurin, and McConnell played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Hield, Brissett, Smith, Duarte, and McConnell played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

