SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 29 March 2023

DET106–107OKC
Is it worth watching?

The ESPN data for this game contradicts the official result, so it cannot be rated

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ OKC winsDET wins ↓

The last point of this curve falls on DET's side, but OKC won 107-106. It is an ESPN error at the close of the game: the curve is shown as it is and no conclusion is drawn from it.

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when OKC leads and falls when DET does.

Game context

Attendance
15.047
82.7% of capacity
Paycom Center · Oklahoma City
Scoring
213
combined points
16.4 below the season average (229.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

16 calls reviewed3 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Shooting · 00:09.6
Eugene Omoruyi → Josh Giddey
Omoruyi (DET) initiates contact with Giddey's (OKC) body by wrapping his arm around Giddey's back, which affects his driving shot attempt.
Foul: Shooting · 00:32.2
James Wiseman → Jalen Williams
Wiseman (DET) brings his arm down and makes contact with Williams' (OKC) head, which affects his driving shot attempt.
Foul: Offensive · 01:27.2
R.J. Hampton → Jaylin Williams
Hampton (DET) does not establish himself in Williams' (OKC) path and delivers illegal contact during the screen.