SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 25 April 2023

ATL119–117BOS
Is it worth watching?
Recommended

It was more exciting than 59% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ BOS winsATL wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when BOS leads and falls when ATL does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · ATL

De'Andre Hunter
John Collins
Clint Capela
Saddiq Bey
Onyeka Okongwu

Hunter · Collins · Capela · Bey · Okongwu

Closing lineup · BOS

Jaylen Brown
Jayson Tatum
Al Horford
Marcus Smart
Robert Williams III

Brown · Tatum · Horford · Smart · Williams

Q1Q2Q3Q4
ATL
Trae Young

Trae Young

44′ · +3

De'Andre Hunter

De'Andre Hunter

42′ · +7

Bogdan Bogdanovic

Bogdan Bogdanovic

35′ · +11

John Collins

John Collins

31′ · -2

Clint Capela

Clint Capela

21′ · -6

Saddiq Bey

Saddiq Bey

24′ · -11

Onyeka Okongwu

Onyeka Okongwu

27′ · +8

Jalen Johnson

Jalen Johnson

14′ · +1

Aaron Holiday

Aaron Holiday

4′ · -3

BOS
Jaylen Brown

Jaylen Brown

38′ · +1

Jayson Tatum

Jayson Tatum

38′ · -9

Al Horford

Al Horford

33′ · +1

Derrick White

Derrick White

31′ · +9

Marcus Smart

Marcus Smart

27′ · -12

Robert Williams III

Robert Williams III

27′ · -1

Malcolm Brogdon

Malcolm Brogdon

26′ · +2

Sam Hauser

Sam Hauser

14′ · -1

Blake Griffin

Blake Griffin

6′ · 0

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ATL and BOS.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Atlanta Hawks

  • Collins, Young, Hunter, Capela, and Bogdanovic played 15.6 minutes together.

  • Collins, Young, Hunter, Okongwu, and Bogdanovic played 7.2 minutes together.

  • Young, Hunter, Okongwu, Bey, and Johnson played 5.7 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each Atlanta Hawks lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

Boston Celtics

  • Brown, Tatum, White, Horford, and Smart played 12.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Brogdon, Tatum, Williams, Hauser, and Smart played 4.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Brown, Brogdon, White, Williams, and Horford played 4.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 10 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Atlanta Hawks

  • Collins, Young, Hunter, Bey, and Capela played 5.2 minutes together.

  • Holiday, Okongwu, Bey, Johnson, and Bogdanovic played 3.9 minutes together.

  • Young, Hunter, Okongwu, Bey, and Bogdanovic played 3.9 minutes together.

  • Collins, Young, Hunter, Okongwu, and Bey played 2.3 minutes together.

  • Young, Okongwu, Bey, Johnson, and Bogdanovic played 2.3 minutes together.

  • Young, Hunter, Okongwu, Johnson, and Bogdanovic played 1.6 minutes together.

Boston Celtics

  • Brogdon, Tatum, White, Williams, and Hauser played 4.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Brown, Tatum, Williams, Horford, and Smart played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Brown, Tatum, White, Williams, and Griffin played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Brown, Tatum, White, Williams, and Horford played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Brown, Brogdon, Tatum, Williams, and Horford played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Brown, Brogdon, White, Horford, and Griffin played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Brown, Brogdon, Hauser, Horford, and Smart played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Brown, Tatum, White, Hauser, and Horford played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Brown, Brogdon, Tatum, Williams, and Smart played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Brown, Brogdon, Horford, Griffin, and Smart played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Brown, Brogdon, Tatum, White, and Williams played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Brown, Brogdon, Tatum, Horford, and Smart played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
19.156
102.9% of capacity
TD Garden · Boston
Series
Game 5
First round
BOS 4-2
Scoring
236
combined points
16.8 above the season average (219.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

38 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Shooting · 00:52.7
John Collins → Robert Williams
After Williams III (BOS) secures the rebound, Collins (ATL) initiates contact with his right arm, which impacts the put-back attempt at the basket.