Win probability changed during the game. · 25 April 2023
It was more exciting than 59% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when BOS leads and falls when ATL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · ATL
Hunter · Collins · Capela · Bey · Okongwu
Closing lineup · BOS
Brown · Tatum · Horford · Smart · Williams
Trae Young
44′ · +3
De'Andre Hunter
42′ · +7
Bogdan Bogdanovic
35′ · +11
John Collins
31′ · -2
Clint Capela
21′ · -6
Saddiq Bey
24′ · -11
Onyeka Okongwu
27′ · +8
Jalen Johnson
14′ · +1
Aaron Holiday
4′ · -3
Jaylen Brown
38′ · +1
Jayson Tatum
38′ · -9
Al Horford
33′ · +1
Derrick White
31′ · +9
Marcus Smart
27′ · -12
Robert Williams III
27′ · -1
Malcolm Brogdon
26′ · +2
Sam Hauser
14′ · -1
Blake Griffin
6′ · 0
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ATL and BOS.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Atlanta Hawks
Collins, Young, Hunter, Capela, and Bogdanovic played 15.6 minutes together.
Collins, Young, Hunter, Okongwu, and Bogdanovic played 7.2 minutes together.
Young, Hunter, Okongwu, Bey, and Johnson played 5.7 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Atlanta Hawks lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
Boston Celtics
Brown, Tatum, White, Horford, and Smart played 12.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Brogdon, Tatum, Williams, Hauser, and Smart played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Brown, Brogdon, White, Williams, and Horford played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Atlanta Hawks
Collins, Young, Hunter, Bey, and Capela played 5.2 minutes together.
Holiday, Okongwu, Bey, Johnson, and Bogdanovic played 3.9 minutes together.
Young, Hunter, Okongwu, Bey, and Bogdanovic played 3.9 minutes together.
Collins, Young, Hunter, Okongwu, and Bey played 2.3 minutes together.
Young, Okongwu, Bey, Johnson, and Bogdanovic played 2.3 minutes together.
Young, Hunter, Okongwu, Johnson, and Bogdanovic played 1.6 minutes together.
Boston Celtics
Brogdon, Tatum, White, Williams, and Hauser played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Brown, Tatum, Williams, Horford, and Smart played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Brown, Tatum, White, Williams, and Griffin played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Brown, Tatum, White, Williams, and Horford played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Brown, Brogdon, Tatum, Williams, and Horford played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Brown, Brogdon, White, Horford, and Griffin played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Brown, Brogdon, Hauser, Horford, and Smart played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Brown, Tatum, White, Hauser, and Horford played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Brown, Brogdon, Tatum, Williams, and Smart played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Brown, Brogdon, Horford, Griffin, and Smart played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Brown, Brogdon, Tatum, White, and Williams played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Brown, Brogdon, Tatum, Horford, and Smart played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

