Win probability changed during the game. · 16 January 2024
It was more exciting than 47% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when PHX leads and falls when SAC does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · SAC
Sabonis · Fox · Murray · Barnes · Monk
Closing lineup · PHX
Durant · Booker · Beal · Allen · Gordon
Domantas Sabonis
39′ · -2
De'Aaron Fox
37′ · +6
Keegan Murray
35′ · -9
Harrison Barnes
34′ · -11
Kevin Huerter
26′ · -1
Malik Monk
29′ · -12
Trey Lyles
14′ · +9
Sasha Vezenkov
18′ · +7
Alex Len
8′ · +3
Kevin Durant
39′ · -4
Devin Booker
38′ · +16
Bradley Beal
38′ · -12
Grayson Allen
37′ · +21
Jusuf Nurkic
27′ · -8
Eric Gordon
24′ · +10
Chimezie Metu
10′ · +2
Drew Eubanks
10′ · -6
Josh Okogie
16′ · -9
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAC and PHX.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Sacramento Kings
Sabonis, Fox, Huerter, Murray, and Barnes played 16.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Lyles, Fox, Monk, Vezenkov, and Len played 6.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Sabonis, Fox, Monk, Murray, and Barnes played 6.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Phoenix Suns
Booker, Allen, Durant, Beal, and Nurkic played 17.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 11 points.
Booker, Allen, Durant, Gordon, and Beal played 5.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 19 points.
Okogie, Eubanks, Durant, Gordon, and Beal played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Sacramento Kings
Sabonis, Monk, Huerter, Murray, and Barnes played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Lyles, Sabonis, Fox, Monk, and Vezenkov played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Lyles, Sabonis, Monk, Vezenkov, and Murray played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Sabonis, Monk, Vezenkov, Murray, and Barnes played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Sabonis, Fox, Vezenkov, Huerter, and Barnes played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Fox, Vezenkov, Huerter, Barnes, and Len played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Phoenix Suns
Booker, Metu, Eubanks, Gordon, and Beal played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Booker, Allen, Metu, Gordon, and Nurkic played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Booker, Allen, Durant, Gordon, and Nurkic played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Booker, Allen, Okogie, Gordon, and Nurkic played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Booker, Allen, Okogie, Durant, and Beal played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Booker, Allen, Metu, Okogie, and Durant played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Allen, Okogie, Eubanks, Durant, and Beal played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Allen, Okogie, Durant, Beal, and Nurkic played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Metu, Okogie, Durant, Gordon, and Beal played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.
