SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 17 January 2024

BKN103–105POR
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 93% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 38 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ POR winsBKN wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when POR leads and falls when BKN does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · BKN

Mikal Bridges
Nic Claxton
Cameron Johnson
Cam Thomas
Royce O'Neale

Bridges · Claxton · Johnson · Thomas · O'Neale

Closing lineup · POR

Jerami Grant
Malcolm Brogdon
Duop Reath
Toumani Camara
Ibou Badji

Grant · Brogdon · Reath · Camara · Badji

Q1Q2Q3Q4
BKN
Mikal Bridges

Mikal Bridges

34′ · -3

Spencer Dinwiddie

Spencer Dinwiddie

32′ · +12

Nic Claxton

Nic Claxton

32′ · -4

Dorian Finney-Smith

Dorian Finney-Smith

32′ · -7

Cameron Johnson

Cameron Johnson

27′ · +1

Cam Thomas

Cam Thomas

22′ · -1

Royce O'Neale

Royce O'Neale

20′ · -3

Trendon Watford

Trendon Watford

8′ · -1

Dennis Smith Jr.

Dennis Smith Jr.

14′ · -14

Lonnie Walker IV

Lonnie Walker IV

19′ · +10

POR
Anfernee Simons

Anfernee Simons

39′ · +11

Jerami Grant

Jerami Grant

36′ · +12

Malcolm Brogdon

Malcolm Brogdon

30′ · -2

Jabari Walker

Jabari Walker

30′ · -6

Duop Reath

Duop Reath

25′ · +5

Scoot Henderson

Scoot Henderson

23′ · -13

Toumani Camara

Toumani Camara

20′ · +5

Ibou Badji

Ibou Badji

13′ · +2

Matisse Thybulle

Matisse Thybulle

21′ · -3

Kris Murray

Kris Murray

3′ · -1

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. BKN and POR.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Brooklyn Nets

  • Finney-Smith, Bridges, Claxton, Johnson, and Dinwiddie played 21.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Finney-Smith, Bridges, Walker, Johnson, and Dinwiddie played 5.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • O'Neale, Smith, Walker, Claxton, and Thomas played 4.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

Portland Trail Blazers

  • Brogdon, Simons, Walker, Reath, and Grant played 13.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Simons, Thybulle, Camara, Reath, and Grant played 4.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Brogdon, Simons, Badji, Walker, and Grant played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Brooklyn Nets

  • O'Neale, Walker, Claxton, Thomas, and Dinwiddie played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • O'Neale, Finney-Smith, Smith, Walker, and Thomas played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • O'Neale, Smith, Walker, Thomas, and Watford played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • O'Neale, Smith, Bridges, Thomas, and Watford played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • O'Neale, Bridges, Claxton, Thomas, and Watford played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • O'Neale, Finney-Smith, Smith, Bridges, and Thomas played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • O'Neale, Bridges, Thomas, Watford, and Dinwiddie played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

Portland Trail Blazers

  • Simons, Thybulle, Badji, Henderson, and Camara played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Simons, Henderson, Walker, Reath, and Grant played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Brogdon, Thybulle, Henderson, Walker, and Camara played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Simons, Thybulle, Henderson, Reath, and Grant played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Brogdon, Thybulle, Henderson, Murray, and Camara played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Brogdon, Thybulle, Badji, Henderson, and Camara played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Brogdon, Simons, Henderson, Walker, and Grant played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Simons, Badji, Henderson, Camara, and Grant played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Brogdon, Simons, Walker, Camara, and Grant played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Simons, Badji, Henderson, Walker, and Grant played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
17.021
87.7% of capacity
Moda Center · Portland
Scoring
208
combined points
20.4 below the season average (228.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

16 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Shooting · 01:34.8
Mikal Bridges → Malcolm Brogdon
Bridges (BKN) retreats in Brogdon's (POR) path when he absorbs the body contact that occurs.