Win probability changed during the game. · 17 January 2024
It was more exciting than 93% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 38 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when POR leads and falls when BKN does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · BKN
Bridges · Claxton · Johnson · Thomas · O'Neale
Closing lineup · POR
Grant · Brogdon · Reath · Camara · Badji
Mikal Bridges
34′ · -3
Spencer Dinwiddie
32′ · +12
Nic Claxton
32′ · -4
Dorian Finney-Smith
32′ · -7
Cameron Johnson
27′ · +1
Cam Thomas
22′ · -1
Royce O'Neale
20′ · -3
Trendon Watford
8′ · -1
Dennis Smith Jr.
14′ · -14
Lonnie Walker IV
19′ · +10
Anfernee Simons
39′ · +11
Jerami Grant
36′ · +12
Malcolm Brogdon
30′ · -2
Jabari Walker
30′ · -6
Duop Reath
25′ · +5
Scoot Henderson
23′ · -13
Toumani Camara
20′ · +5
Ibou Badji
13′ · +2
Matisse Thybulle
21′ · -3
Kris Murray
3′ · -1
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. BKN and POR.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Brooklyn Nets
Finney-Smith, Bridges, Claxton, Johnson, and Dinwiddie played 21.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Finney-Smith, Bridges, Walker, Johnson, and Dinwiddie played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
O'Neale, Smith, Walker, Claxton, and Thomas played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Portland Trail Blazers
Brogdon, Simons, Walker, Reath, and Grant played 13.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Simons, Thybulle, Camara, Reath, and Grant played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Brogdon, Simons, Badji, Walker, and Grant played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Brooklyn Nets
O'Neale, Walker, Claxton, Thomas, and Dinwiddie played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
O'Neale, Finney-Smith, Smith, Walker, and Thomas played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
O'Neale, Smith, Walker, Thomas, and Watford played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
O'Neale, Smith, Bridges, Thomas, and Watford played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
O'Neale, Bridges, Claxton, Thomas, and Watford played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
O'Neale, Finney-Smith, Smith, Bridges, and Thomas played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
O'Neale, Bridges, Thomas, Watford, and Dinwiddie played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Portland Trail Blazers
Simons, Thybulle, Badji, Henderson, and Camara played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Simons, Henderson, Walker, Reath, and Grant played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Brogdon, Thybulle, Henderson, Walker, and Camara played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Simons, Thybulle, Henderson, Reath, and Grant played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Brogdon, Thybulle, Henderson, Murray, and Camara played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Brogdon, Thybulle, Badji, Henderson, and Camara played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Brogdon, Simons, Henderson, Walker, and Grant played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Simons, Badji, Henderson, Camara, and Grant played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Brogdon, Simons, Walker, Camara, and Grant played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Simons, Badji, Henderson, Walker, and Grant played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

