Win probability changed during the game. · 31 March 2024
It was more exciting than 99% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 33 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when NYK leads and falls when OKC does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · OKC
Gilgeous-Alexander · Williams · Dort · Holmgren · Wallace
Closing lineup · NYK
McBride · Hart · DiVincenzo · Brunson · Hartenstein
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
35′ · -15
Jalen Williams
34′ · +6
Josh Giddey
31′ · +11
Luguentz Dort
29′ · 0
Chet Holmgren
26′ · -10
Jaylin Williams
19′ · 0
Isaiah Joe
16′ · +4
Gordon Hayward
11′ · -10
Cason Wallace
16′ · -3
Aaron Wiggins
14′ · +13
Kenrich Williams
10′ · +9
Miles McBride
46′ · -6
Josh Hart
45′ · +4
Donte DiVincenzo
40′ · -1
Jalen Brunson
35′ · +17
Isaiah Hartenstein
29′ · +7
Precious Achiuwa
22′ · -13
Alec Burks
12′ · -9
Bojan Bogdanovic
11′ · -2
DaQuan Jeffries
0′ · -2
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. OKC and NYK.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Giddey, Holmgren, and Williams played 12.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Williams, Wiggins, Holmgren, Williams, and Wallace played 6.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Williams, and Hayward played 5.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
New York Knicks
Hartenstein, Hart, Brunson, DiVincenzo, and McBride played 21.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Hart, Brunson, DiVincenzo, Achiuwa, and McBride played 11.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Hart, DiVincenzo, Achiuwa, McBride, and Burks played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Oklahoma City Thunder
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Giddey, and Williams played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Williams, Giddey, Wiggins, Williams, and Wallace played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Giddey, Holmgren, Williams, and Wallace played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Dort, Giddey, Wiggins, Williams, and Williams played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Joe, Holmgren, Williams, and Hayward played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Joe, Williams, Wallace, and Hayward played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Giddey, and Holmgren played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Giddey, Williams, and Williams played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Williams, Giddey, Wiggins, Williams, and Williams played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
New York Knicks
Hart, Achiuwa, McBride, Burks, and Bogdanovic played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Hartenstein, Achiuwa, McBride, Burks, and Bogdanovic played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Hartenstein, Hart, DiVincenzo, McBride, and Bogdanovic played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Hartenstein, Hart, Brunson, Burks, and Bogdanovic played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

