SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 31 March 2024

OKC113–112NYK
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 99% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 33 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ NYK winsOKC wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when NYK leads and falls when OKC does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · OKC

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Jalen Williams
Luguentz Dort
Chet Holmgren
Cason Wallace

Gilgeous-Alexander · Williams · Dort · Holmgren · Wallace

Closing lineup · NYK

Miles McBride
Josh Hart
Donte DiVincenzo
Jalen Brunson
Isaiah Hartenstein

McBride · Hart · DiVincenzo · Brunson · Hartenstein

Q1Q2Q3Q4
OKC
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

35′ · -15

Jalen Williams

Jalen Williams

34′ · +6

Josh Giddey

Josh Giddey

31′ · +11

Luguentz Dort

Luguentz Dort

29′ · 0

Chet Holmgren

Chet Holmgren

26′ · -10

Jaylin Williams

Jaylin Williams

19′ · 0

Isaiah Joe

Isaiah Joe

16′ · +4

Gordon Hayward

Gordon Hayward

11′ · -10

Cason Wallace

Cason Wallace

16′ · -3

Aaron Wiggins

Aaron Wiggins

14′ · +13

Kenrich Williams

Kenrich Williams

10′ · +9

NYK
Miles McBride

Miles McBride

46′ · -6

Josh Hart

Josh Hart

45′ · +4

Donte DiVincenzo

Donte DiVincenzo

40′ · -1

Jalen Brunson

Jalen Brunson

35′ · +17

Isaiah Hartenstein

Isaiah Hartenstein

29′ · +7

Precious Achiuwa

Precious Achiuwa

22′ · -13

Alec Burks

Alec Burks

12′ · -9

Bojan Bogdanovic

Bojan Bogdanovic

11′ · -2

DaQuan Jeffries

DaQuan Jeffries

0′ · -2

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. OKC and NYK.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Giddey, Holmgren, and Williams played 12.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Williams, Wiggins, Holmgren, Williams, and Wallace played 6.1 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Williams, and Hayward played 5.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.

New York Knicks

  • Hartenstein, Hart, Brunson, DiVincenzo, and McBride played 21.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 9 points.

  • Hart, Brunson, DiVincenzo, Achiuwa, and McBride played 11.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Hart, DiVincenzo, Achiuwa, McBride, and Burks played 4.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Giddey, and Williams played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Williams, Giddey, Wiggins, Williams, and Wallace played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 9 points.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Giddey, Holmgren, Williams, and Wallace played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.

  • Dort, Giddey, Wiggins, Williams, and Williams played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Joe, Holmgren, Williams, and Hayward played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Joe, Williams, Wallace, and Hayward played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Giddey, and Holmgren played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Giddey, Williams, and Williams played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Williams, Giddey, Wiggins, Williams, and Williams played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

New York Knicks

  • Hart, Achiuwa, McBride, Burks, and Bogdanovic played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Hartenstein, Achiuwa, McBride, Burks, and Bogdanovic played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Hartenstein, Hart, DiVincenzo, McBride, and Bogdanovic played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Hartenstein, Hart, Brunson, Burks, and Bogdanovic played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
19.812
100% of capacity
Madison Square Garden · New York
Scoring
225
combined points
3.4 below the season average (228.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

21 calls reviewed0 no admitted errors