Win probability changed during the game. · 12 April 2024
It was more exciting than 85% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 22 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when SAC leads and falls when PHX does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · PHX
Durant · Booker · Allen · Beal · O'Neale
Closing lineup · SAC
Murray · Sabonis · Barnes · Fox · Ellis
Kevin Durant
42′ · -4
Devin Booker
41′ · -1
Grayson Allen
38′ · +3
Bradley Beal
34′ · +8
Jusuf Nurkic
32′ · -1
Eric Gordon
17′ · 0
Royce O'Neale
24′ · -1
Drew Eubanks
12′ · +1
Keegan Murray
43′ · -2
Domantas Sabonis
42′ · +7
Harrison Barnes
41′ · +7
De'Aaron Fox
41′ · +3
Keon Ellis
33′ · -13
Davion Mitchell
20′ · +7
Trey Lyles
15′ · -9
Alex Len
5′ · -5
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. PHX and SAC.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Phoenix Suns
Booker, Allen, Durant, Beal, and Nurkic played 20.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Booker, O'Neale, Eubanks, Durant, and Gordon played 5.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Booker, O'Neale, Allen, Durant, and Nurkic played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Sacramento Kings
Sabonis, Fox, Murray, Ellis, and Barnes played 22.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Sabonis, Fox, Mitchell, Murray, and Barnes played 7.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 13 points.
Lyles, Sabonis, Fox, Mitchell, and Barnes played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See every lineup of the game
Phoenix Suns
O'Neale, Allen, Eubanks, Gordon, and Beal played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Booker, O'Neale, Allen, Durant, and Beal played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
O'Neale, Allen, Gordon, Beal, and Nurkic played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Booker, O'Neale, Durant, Gordon, and Nurkic played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Booker, Allen, Durant, Gordon, and Nurkic played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Booker, Allen, Eubanks, Durant, and Beal played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Booker, O'Neale, Durant, Beal, and Nurkic played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Sacramento Kings
Lyles, Fox, Murray, Ellis, and Len played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Sabonis, Mitchell, Murray, Ellis, and Barnes played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Lyles, Sabonis, Mitchell, Murray, and Barnes played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Lyles, Sabonis, Mitchell, Murray, and Ellis played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

