SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 12 April 2024

PHX108–107SAC
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 85% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 22 times

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ SAC winsPHX wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when SAC leads and falls when PHX does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · PHX

Kevin Durant
Devin Booker
Grayson Allen
Bradley Beal
Royce O'Neale

Durant · Booker · Allen · Beal · O'Neale

Closing lineup · SAC

Keegan Murray
Domantas Sabonis
Harrison Barnes
De'Aaron Fox
Keon Ellis

Murray · Sabonis · Barnes · Fox · Ellis

Q1Q2Q3Q4
PHX
Kevin Durant

Kevin Durant

42′ · -4

Devin Booker

Devin Booker

41′ · -1

Grayson Allen

Grayson Allen

38′ · +3

Bradley Beal

Bradley Beal

34′ · +8

Jusuf Nurkic

Jusuf Nurkic

32′ · -1

Eric Gordon

Eric Gordon

17′ · 0

Royce O'Neale

Royce O'Neale

24′ · -1

Drew Eubanks

Drew Eubanks

12′ · +1

SAC
Keegan Murray

Keegan Murray

43′ · -2

Domantas Sabonis

Domantas Sabonis

42′ · +7

Harrison Barnes

Harrison Barnes

41′ · +7

De'Aaron Fox

De'Aaron Fox

41′ · +3

Keon Ellis

Keon Ellis

33′ · -13

Davion Mitchell

Davion Mitchell

20′ · +7

Trey Lyles

Trey Lyles

15′ · -9

Alex Len

Alex Len

5′ · -5

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. PHX and SAC.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Phoenix Suns

  • Booker, Allen, Durant, Beal, and Nurkic played 20.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Booker, O'Neale, Eubanks, Durant, and Gordon played 5.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Booker, O'Neale, Allen, Durant, and Nurkic played 3.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

Sacramento Kings

  • Sabonis, Fox, Murray, Ellis, and Barnes played 22.4 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Sabonis, Fox, Mitchell, Murray, and Barnes played 7.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 13 points.

  • Lyles, Sabonis, Fox, Mitchell, and Barnes played 5.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

▸See every lineup of the game

Phoenix Suns

  • O'Neale, Allen, Eubanks, Gordon, and Beal played 3.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Booker, O'Neale, Allen, Durant, and Beal played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • O'Neale, Allen, Gordon, Beal, and Nurkic played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Booker, O'Neale, Durant, Gordon, and Nurkic played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Booker, Allen, Durant, Gordon, and Nurkic played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Booker, Allen, Eubanks, Durant, and Beal played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Booker, O'Neale, Durant, Beal, and Nurkic played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

Sacramento Kings

  • Lyles, Fox, Murray, Ellis, and Len played 5.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Sabonis, Mitchell, Murray, Ellis, and Barnes played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Lyles, Sabonis, Mitchell, Murray, and Barnes played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Lyles, Sabonis, Mitchell, Murray, and Ellis played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
17.832
101.3% of capacity
Golden 1 Center · Sacramento
Scoring
215
combined points
13.4 below the season average (228.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

24 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA
Turnover: Traveling · 02:00.0
Keegan Murray → Suns
Murray (SAC) lifts and re-plants his pivot foot prior to releasing his dribble.