SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 8 November 2024

ATL121–122DET
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 85% of NBA games since 2017

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ DET winsATL wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DET leads and falls when ATL does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · ATL

Trae Young
Dyson Daniels
Jalen Johnson
Onyeka Okongwu
Garrison Mathews

Young · Daniels · Johnson · Okongwu · Mathews

Closing lineup · DET

Cade Cunningham
Isaiah Stewart
Tobias Harris
Jaden Ivey
Malik Beasley

Cunningham · Stewart · Harris · Ivey · Beasley

Q1Q2Q3Q4
ATL
Trae Young

Trae Young

41′ · +14

Dyson Daniels

Dyson Daniels

38′ · +10

Jalen Johnson

Jalen Johnson

37′ · -12

Zaccharie Risacher

Zaccharie Risacher

25′ · -4

Clint Capela

Clint Capela

19′ · -4

Onyeka Okongwu

Onyeka Okongwu

17′ · +3

David Roddy

David Roddy

16′ · +5

Garrison Mathews

Garrison Mathews

27′ · -2

Keaton Wallace

Keaton Wallace

7′ · -15

Larry Nance Jr.

Larry Nance Jr.

13′ · 0

DET
Cade Cunningham

Cade Cunningham

36′ · +3

Isaiah Stewart

Isaiah Stewart

33′ · -3

Tobias Harris

Tobias Harris

31′ · +1

Jaden Ivey

Jaden Ivey

29′ · -3

Tim Hardaway Jr.

Tim Hardaway Jr.

29′ · +3

Malik Beasley

Malik Beasley

34′ · -3

Paul Reed

Paul Reed

15′ · -1

Simone Fontecchio

Simone Fontecchio

20′ · +5

Ronald Holland II

Ronald Holland II

14′ · +3

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ATL and DET.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Atlanta Hawks

  • Young, Johnson, Daniels, Risacher, and Capela played 12.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.

  • Young, Mathews, Johnson, Daniels, and Capela played 6.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Young, Mathews, Okongwu, Johnson, and Daniels played 5.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

Detroit Pistons

  • Stewart, Cunningham, Ivey, Harris, and Hardaway played 10.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Beasley, Stewart, Cunningham, Ivey, and Harris played 6.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.

  • Beasley, Stewart, Cunningham, Fontecchio, and Holland played 6.0 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

▸See every lineup of the game

Atlanta Hawks

  • Nance, Young, Daniels, Roddy, and Risacher played 4.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Young, Mathews, Okongwu, Daniels, and Roddy played 4.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Mathews, Okongwu, Johnson, Wallace, and Roddy played 3.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Nance, Mathews, Johnson, Wallace, and Risacher played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Young, Okongwu, Daniels, Roddy, and Risacher played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 9 points.

  • Nance, Young, Mathews, Johnson, and Risacher played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Nance, Young, Johnson, Daniels, and Risacher played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Nance, Young, Mathews, Johnson, and Daniels played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

Detroit Pistons

  • Beasley, Stewart, Cunningham, Harris, and Hardaway played 5.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Beasley, Reed, Ivey, Harris, and Hardaway played 4.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Beasley, Reed, Ivey, Fontecchio, and Holland played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Stewart, Cunningham, Fontecchio, Holland, and Hardaway played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Beasley, Reed, Ivey, Fontecchio, and Hardaway played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Beasley, Reed, Cunningham, Fontecchio, and Harris played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Beasley, Reed, Cunningham, Fontecchio, and Hardaway played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Beasley, Reed, Cunningham, Harris, and Hardaway played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Beasley, Stewart, Ivey, Fontecchio, and Holland played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
17.913
88.1% of capacity
Little Caesars Arena · Detroit
Scoring
243
combined points
15.3 above the season average (227.7)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

14 calls reviewed0 no admitted errors