Win probability changed during the game. · 8 November 2024
It was more exciting than 85% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DET leads and falls when ATL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · ATL
Young · Daniels · Johnson · Okongwu · Mathews
Closing lineup · DET
Cunningham · Stewart · Harris · Ivey · Beasley
Trae Young
41′ · +14
Dyson Daniels
38′ · +10
Jalen Johnson
37′ · -12
Zaccharie Risacher
25′ · -4
Clint Capela
19′ · -4
Onyeka Okongwu
17′ · +3
David Roddy
16′ · +5
Garrison Mathews
27′ · -2
Keaton Wallace
7′ · -15
Larry Nance Jr.
13′ · 0
Cade Cunningham
36′ · +3
Isaiah Stewart
33′ · -3
Tobias Harris
31′ · +1
Jaden Ivey
29′ · -3
Tim Hardaway Jr.
29′ · +3
Malik Beasley
34′ · -3
Paul Reed
15′ · -1
Simone Fontecchio
20′ · +5
Ronald Holland II
14′ · +3
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ATL and DET.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Atlanta Hawks
Young, Johnson, Daniels, Risacher, and Capela played 12.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
Young, Mathews, Johnson, Daniels, and Capela played 6.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Young, Mathews, Okongwu, Johnson, and Daniels played 5.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Detroit Pistons
Stewart, Cunningham, Ivey, Harris, and Hardaway played 10.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Beasley, Stewart, Cunningham, Ivey, and Harris played 6.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Beasley, Stewart, Cunningham, Fontecchio, and Holland played 6.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See every lineup of the game
Atlanta Hawks
Nance, Young, Daniels, Roddy, and Risacher played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Young, Mathews, Okongwu, Daniels, and Roddy played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Mathews, Okongwu, Johnson, Wallace, and Roddy played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Nance, Mathews, Johnson, Wallace, and Risacher played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Young, Okongwu, Daniels, Roddy, and Risacher played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Nance, Young, Mathews, Johnson, and Risacher played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Nance, Young, Johnson, Daniels, and Risacher played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Nance, Young, Mathews, Johnson, and Daniels played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Detroit Pistons
Beasley, Stewart, Cunningham, Harris, and Hardaway played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Beasley, Reed, Ivey, Harris, and Hardaway played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Beasley, Reed, Ivey, Fontecchio, and Holland played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Stewart, Cunningham, Fontecchio, Holland, and Hardaway played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Beasley, Reed, Ivey, Fontecchio, and Hardaway played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Beasley, Reed, Cunningham, Fontecchio, and Harris played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Beasley, Reed, Cunningham, Fontecchio, and Hardaway played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Beasley, Reed, Cunningham, Harris, and Hardaway played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Beasley, Stewart, Ivey, Fontecchio, and Holland played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

