Win probability changed during the game. · 17 November 2024
It was more exciting than 84% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIN leads and falls when PHX does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · PHX
Booker · Dunn · Ighodaro · O'Neale · Okogie
Closing lineup · MIN
Edwards · Randle · Conley · DiVincenzo · Ingles
Devin Booker
40′ · +4
Tyus Jones
37′ · -2
Mason Plumlee
29′ · 0
Ryan Dunn
18′ · -11
Jusuf Nurkic
14′ · +1
Oso Ighodaro
26′ · +8
Grayson Allen
24′ · -6
Royce O'Neale
25′ · -10
Monte Morris
11′ · +2
Josh Okogie
16′ · -1
Anthony Edwards
39′ · -6
Rudy Gobert
37′ · +4
Julius Randle
34′ · +16
Mike Conley
30′ · +14
Jaden McDaniels
26′ · -6
Donte DiVincenzo
26′ · +10
Naz Reid
22′ · -15
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
20′ · 0
Rob Dillingham
6′ · -5
Joe Ingles
0′ · +3
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. PHX and MIN.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Phoenix Suns
Jones, Booker, Dunn, Plumlee, and Nurkic played 8.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Booker, O'Neale, Morris, Allen, and Ighodaro played 6.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Jones, Booker, Okogie, Ighodaro, and Plumlee played 5.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Edwards, McDaniels, Conley, Gobert, and Randle played 13.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
DiVincenzo, Alexander-Walker, Reid, Edwards, and Randle played 5.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Reid, Edwards, McDaniels, Dillingham, and Gobert played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Phoenix Suns
Jones, Booker, O'Neale, Allen, and Plumlee played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Jones, Booker, O'Neale, Okogie, and Ighodaro played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Jones, Booker, Allen, Ighodaro, and Plumlee played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
O'Neale, Morris, Allen, Dunn, and Plumlee played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Jones, O'Neale, Allen, Okogie, and Ighodaro played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Jones, Booker, Ighodaro, Dunn, and Plumlee played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Jones, Allen, Okogie, Dunn, and Nurkic played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Jones, O'Neale, Allen, Dunn, and Nurkic played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Booker, O'Neale, Morris, Ighodaro, and Dunn played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Minnesota Timberwolves
DiVincenzo, Alexander-Walker, Reid, Edwards, and Gobert played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
DiVincenzo, Edwards, Conley, Gobert, and Randle played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
DiVincenzo, Alexander-Walker, Reid, Conley, and Gobert played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
DiVincenzo, Edwards, McDaniels, Conley, and Randle played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
DiVincenzo, Alexander-Walker, Reid, Conley, and Randle played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Alexander-Walker, Edwards, McDaniels, Gobert, and Randle played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
DiVincenzo, Alexander-Walker, Conley, Gobert, and Randle played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Reid, Edwards, McDaniels, Conley, and Randle played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
DiVincenzo, McDaniels, Conley, Gobert, and Randle played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

