SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 26 December 2024

DET114–113SAC
Is it worth watching?
Recommended

It was more exciting than 53% of NBA games since 2017

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ SAC winsDET wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when SAC leads and falls when DET does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · DET

Cade Cunningham
Jaden Ivey
Jalen Duren
Malik Beasley
Ausar Thompson

Cunningham · Ivey · Duren · Beasley · Thompson

Closing lineup · SAC

De'Aaron Fox
Keegan Murray
DeMar DeRozan
Kevin Huerter
Trey Lyles

Fox · Murray · DeRozan · Huerter · Lyles

Q1Q2Q3Q4
DET
Cade Cunningham

Cade Cunningham

38′ · +8

Jaden Ivey

Jaden Ivey

33′ · -1

Jalen Duren

Jalen Duren

32′ · -11

Tobias Harris

Tobias Harris

27′ · +3

Tim Hardaway Jr.

Tim Hardaway Jr.

23′ · +11

Malik Beasley

Malik Beasley

27′ · -3

Ausar Thompson

Ausar Thompson

18′ · -1

Simone Fontecchio

Simone Fontecchio

14′ · -3

Paul Reed

Paul Reed

13′ · +12

Ronald Holland II

Ronald Holland II

7′ · -15

Marcus Sasser

Marcus Sasser

8′ · +5

SAC
De'Aaron Fox

De'Aaron Fox

38′ · -13

Keegan Murray

Keegan Murray

37′ · -4

DeMar DeRozan

DeMar DeRozan

36′ · -1

Malik Monk

Malik Monk

30′ · +3

Alex Len

Alex Len

23′ · -1

Keon Ellis

Keon Ellis

14′ · -2

Kevin Huerter

Kevin Huerter

23′ · +4

Trey Lyles

Trey Lyles

25′ · 0

Isaac Jones

Isaac Jones

3′ · -3

Colby Jones

Colby Jones

11′ · +12

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DET and SAC.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Detroit Pistons

  • Cunningham, Ivey, Duren, Harris, and Hardaway played 14.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Beasley, Cunningham, Ivey, Duren, and Harris played 5.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Beasley, Reed, Cunningham, Sasser, and Fontecchio played 3.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

Sacramento Kings

  • Fox, Monk, Murray, DeRozan, and Len played 10.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Lyles, Fox, Monk, Murray, and DeRozan played 7.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Fox, Murray, Ellis, DeRozan, and Len played 6.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Detroit Pistons

  • Beasley, Cunningham, Ivey, Duren, and Thompson played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Beasley, Ivey, Duren, Fontecchio, and Holland played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Beasley, Reed, Cunningham, Fontecchio, and Thompson played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Ivey, Duren, Thompson, Harris, and Hardaway played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Cunningham, Ivey, Duren, Thompson, and Harris played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Beasley, Cunningham, Duren, Thompson, and Harris played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Beasley, Reed, Cunningham, Thompson, and Hardaway played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Beasley, Reed, Sasser, Fontecchio, and Hardaway played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Beasley, Reed, Cunningham, Sasser, and Thompson played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Cunningham, Thompson, Holland, Harris, and Hardaway played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Beasley, Reed, Ivey, Fontecchio, and Holland played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Cunningham, Fontecchio, Thompson, Holland, and Hardaway played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Beasley, Reed, Sasser, Thompson, and Hardaway played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Beasley, Reed, Ivey, Fontecchio, and Thompson played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

Sacramento Kings

  • Lyles, Fox, Monk, Huerter, and Jones played 5.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Lyles, Huerter, Murray, Jones, and DeRozan played 4.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Huerter, Murray, Ellis, DeRozan, and Len played 4.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 9 points.

  • Lyles, Fox, Monk, Huerter, and Jones played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Lyles, Fox, Monk, Huerter, and Ellis played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Fox, Huerter, Murray, DeRozan, and Len played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Lyles, Fox, Monk, Huerter, and Murray played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
17.832
101.3% of capacity
Golden 1 Center · Sacramento
Scoring
227
combined points
0.7 below the season average (227.7)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

14 calls reviewed0 no admitted errors