Win probability changed during the game. · 26 December 2024
It was more exciting than 53% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when SAC leads and falls when DET does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · DET
Cunningham · Ivey · Duren · Beasley · Thompson
Closing lineup · SAC
Fox · Murray · DeRozan · Huerter · Lyles
Cade Cunningham
38′ · +8
Jaden Ivey
33′ · -1
Jalen Duren
32′ · -11
Tobias Harris
27′ · +3
Tim Hardaway Jr.
23′ · +11
Malik Beasley
27′ · -3
Ausar Thompson
18′ · -1
Simone Fontecchio
14′ · -3
Paul Reed
13′ · +12
Ronald Holland II
7′ · -15
Marcus Sasser
8′ · +5
De'Aaron Fox
38′ · -13
Keegan Murray
37′ · -4
DeMar DeRozan
36′ · -1
Malik Monk
30′ · +3
Alex Len
23′ · -1
Keon Ellis
14′ · -2
Kevin Huerter
23′ · +4
Trey Lyles
25′ · 0
Isaac Jones
3′ · -3
Colby Jones
11′ · +12
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DET and SAC.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Detroit Pistons
Cunningham, Ivey, Duren, Harris, and Hardaway played 14.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Beasley, Cunningham, Ivey, Duren, and Harris played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Beasley, Reed, Cunningham, Sasser, and Fontecchio played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Sacramento Kings
Fox, Monk, Murray, DeRozan, and Len played 10.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Lyles, Fox, Monk, Murray, and DeRozan played 7.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Fox, Murray, Ellis, DeRozan, and Len played 6.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Detroit Pistons
Beasley, Cunningham, Ivey, Duren, and Thompson played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Beasley, Ivey, Duren, Fontecchio, and Holland played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Beasley, Reed, Cunningham, Fontecchio, and Thompson played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Ivey, Duren, Thompson, Harris, and Hardaway played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Cunningham, Ivey, Duren, Thompson, and Harris played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Beasley, Cunningham, Duren, Thompson, and Harris played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Beasley, Reed, Cunningham, Thompson, and Hardaway played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Beasley, Reed, Sasser, Fontecchio, and Hardaway played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Beasley, Reed, Cunningham, Sasser, and Thompson played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Cunningham, Thompson, Holland, Harris, and Hardaway played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Beasley, Reed, Ivey, Fontecchio, and Holland played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Cunningham, Fontecchio, Thompson, Holland, and Hardaway played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Beasley, Reed, Sasser, Thompson, and Hardaway played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Beasley, Reed, Ivey, Fontecchio, and Thompson played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Sacramento Kings
Lyles, Fox, Monk, Huerter, and Jones played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Lyles, Huerter, Murray, Jones, and DeRozan played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Huerter, Murray, Ellis, DeRozan, and Len played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Lyles, Fox, Monk, Huerter, and Jones played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Lyles, Fox, Monk, Huerter, and Ellis played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Fox, Huerter, Murray, DeRozan, and Len played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Lyles, Fox, Monk, Huerter, and Murray played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

