SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 27 January 2025

HOU114–112BOS
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 91% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 24 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ BOS winsHOU wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when BOS leads and falls when HOU does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · HOU

Amen Thompson
Dillon Brooks
Fred VanVleet
Alperen Sengun
Jalen Green

Thompson · Brooks · VanVleet · Sengun · Green

Closing lineup · BOS

Jayson Tatum
Jaylen Brown
Luke Kornet
Jrue Holiday
Payton Pritchard

Tatum · Brown · Kornet · Holiday · Pritchard

Q1Q2Q3Q4
HOU
Amen Thompson

Amen Thompson

42′ · +8

Dillon Brooks

Dillon Brooks

40′ · +16

Fred VanVleet

Fred VanVleet

37′ · +2

Alperen Sengun

Alperen Sengun

34′ · +17

Jalen Green

Jalen Green

30′ · 0

Tari Eason

Tari Eason

25′ · -3

Aaron Holiday

Aaron Holiday

15′ · -9

Steven Adams

Steven Adams

14′ · -11

Jae'Sean Tate

Jae'Sean Tate

5′ · -12

BOS
Jayson Tatum

Jayson Tatum

42′ · +11

Jaylen Brown

Jaylen Brown

38′ · -12

Luke Kornet

Luke Kornet

33′ · -1

Jrue Holiday

Jrue Holiday

31′ · -12

Kristaps Porzingis

Kristaps Porzingis

25′ · +3

Payton Pritchard

Payton Pritchard

31′ · -7

Neemias Queta

Neemias Queta

19′ · 0

Xavier Tillman

Xavier Tillman

6′ · -8

Jordan Walsh

Jordan Walsh

4′ · 0

Jaden Springer

Jaden Springer

7′ · +11

Drew Peterson

Drew Peterson

3′ · +5

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. HOU and BOS.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Houston Rockets

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Sengun, and Thompson played 19.3 minutes together.

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Sengun, Eason, and Thompson played 9.8 minutes together.

  • Brooks, Holiday, Eason, Thompson, and Adams played 3.9 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each Houston Rockets lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

Boston Celtics

  • Brown, Tatum, Kornet, Holiday, and Porzingis played 16.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Brown, Tatum, Pritchard, Holiday, and Porzingis played 5.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Brown, Tatum, Kornet, Queta, and Pritchard played 5.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Houston Rockets

  • Holiday, Green, Tate, Thompson, and Adams played 3.6 minutes together.

  • Holiday, Green, Eason, Thompson, and Adams played 2.8 minutes together.

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Holiday, Sengun, and Eason played 2.7 minutes together.

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Eason, and Adams played 1.4 minutes together.

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Sengun, and Eason played 1.2 minutes together.

  • Brooks, Holiday, Sengun, Eason, and Thompson played 1.0 minutes together.

Boston Celtics

  • Brown, Queta, Pritchard, Tillman, and Holiday played 3.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Tatum, Queta, Pritchard, Springer, and Peterson played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Brown, Kornet, Queta, Pritchard, and Holiday played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Tatum, Kornet, Pritchard, Springer, and Walsh played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Brown, Tatum, Kornet, Pritchard, and Porzingis played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Tatum, Queta, Pritchard, Tillman, and Walsh played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Brown, Tatum, Kornet, Pritchard, and Holiday played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Tatum, Kornet, Pritchard, Springer, and Porzingis played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
19.156
102.9% of capacity
TD Garden · Boston
Scoring
226
combined points
1.7 below the season average (227.7)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

12 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Personal · 00:15.5
Fred VanVleet → Jaylen Brown
VanVleet (HOU) reaches in and makes clean contact with the ball to deflect it away from Brown (BOS). The contact with Brown's arm prior to the contact to the ball is marginal.