Win probability changed during the game. · 27 January 2025
It was more exciting than 91% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 24 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when BOS leads and falls when HOU does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · HOU
Thompson · Brooks · VanVleet · Sengun · Green
Closing lineup · BOS
Tatum · Brown · Kornet · Holiday · Pritchard
Amen Thompson
42′ · +8
Dillon Brooks
40′ · +16
Fred VanVleet
37′ · +2
Alperen Sengun
34′ · +17
Jalen Green
30′ · 0
Tari Eason
25′ · -3
Aaron Holiday
15′ · -9
Steven Adams
14′ · -11
Jae'Sean Tate
5′ · -12
Jayson Tatum
42′ · +11
Jaylen Brown
38′ · -12
Luke Kornet
33′ · -1
Jrue Holiday
31′ · -12
Kristaps Porzingis
25′ · +3
Payton Pritchard
31′ · -7
Neemias Queta
19′ · 0
Xavier Tillman
6′ · -8
Jordan Walsh
4′ · 0
Jaden Springer
7′ · +11
Drew Peterson
3′ · +5
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. HOU and BOS.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Houston Rockets
VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Sengun, and Thompson played 19.3 minutes together.
VanVleet, Brooks, Sengun, Eason, and Thompson played 9.8 minutes together.
Brooks, Holiday, Eason, Thompson, and Adams played 3.9 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Houston Rockets lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
Boston Celtics
Brown, Tatum, Kornet, Holiday, and Porzingis played 16.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Brown, Tatum, Pritchard, Holiday, and Porzingis played 5.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Brown, Tatum, Kornet, Queta, and Pritchard played 5.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Houston Rockets
Holiday, Green, Tate, Thompson, and Adams played 3.6 minutes together.
Holiday, Green, Eason, Thompson, and Adams played 2.8 minutes together.
VanVleet, Brooks, Holiday, Sengun, and Eason played 2.7 minutes together.
VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Eason, and Adams played 1.4 minutes together.
VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Sengun, and Eason played 1.2 minutes together.
Brooks, Holiday, Sengun, Eason, and Thompson played 1.0 minutes together.
Boston Celtics
Brown, Queta, Pritchard, Tillman, and Holiday played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Tatum, Queta, Pritchard, Springer, and Peterson played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Brown, Kornet, Queta, Pritchard, and Holiday played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Tatum, Kornet, Pritchard, Springer, and Walsh played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Brown, Tatum, Kornet, Pritchard, and Porzingis played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Tatum, Queta, Pritchard, Tillman, and Walsh played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Brown, Tatum, Kornet, Pritchard, and Holiday played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Tatum, Kornet, Pritchard, Springer, and Porzingis played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

