Win probability changed during the game. · 4 February 2025
It was more exciting than 97% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when BKN leads and falls when HOU does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · HOU
Thompson · Brooks · Sengun · Green · Sheppard
Closing lineup · BKN
Williams · Johnson · Claxton · Evbuomwan · Martin
Amen Thompson
40′ · +10
Dillon Brooks
37′ · -3
Alperen Sengun
35′ · +8
Jalen Green
33′ · -1
Aaron Holiday
14′ · -4
Cam Whitmore
24′ · -2
Jae'Sean Tate
16′ · -16
Steven Adams
13′ · -5
Reed Sheppard
28′ · +3
Ziaire Williams
30′ · -8
Keon Johnson
29′ · -3
Nic Claxton
28′ · +6
D'Angelo Russell
26′ · -7
Jalen Wilson
18′ · -10
Reece Beekman
22′ · +11
Tosan Evbuomwan
28′ · +7
Tyrese Martin
20′ · +10
Day'Ron Sharpe
20′ · -4
Trendon Watford
19′ · +8
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. HOU and BKN.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Houston Rockets
Brooks, Green, Sengun, Thompson, and Sheppard played 12.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
Brooks, Holiday, Green, Sengun, and Thompson played 7.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Brooks, Holiday, Sengun, Thompson, and Whitmore played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Brooklyn Nets
Russell, Claxton, Williams, Johnson, and Wilson played 13.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Russell, Sharpe, Watford, Martin, and Evbuomwan played 8.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Sharpe, Watford, Martin, Beekman, and Evbuomwan played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See every lineup of the game
Houston Rockets
Brooks, Thompson, Whitmore, Sheppard, and Adams played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Green, Tate, Thompson, Whitmore, and Adams played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Brooks, Sengun, Thompson, Whitmore, and Sheppard played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Tate, Thompson, Whitmore, Sheppard, and Adams played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Green, Tate, Sengun, Whitmore, and Sheppard played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Brooks, Green, Tate, Whitmore, and Adams played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Brooks, Green, Tate, Sengun, and Sheppard played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Holiday, Green, Tate, Sengun, and Thompson played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Brooks, Green, Tate, Sengun, and Whitmore played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Brooklyn Nets
Claxton, Williams, Johnson, Wilson, and Beekman played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Russell, Claxton, Williams, Johnson, and Evbuomwan played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Claxton, Williams, Johnson, Beekman, and Evbuomwan played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Williams, Sharpe, Johnson, Beekman, and Evbuomwan played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Claxton, Watford, Martin, Beekman, and Evbuomwan played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Claxton, Johnson, Watford, Martin, and Beekman played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Williams, Sharpe, Martin, Beekman, and Evbuomwan played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Sharpe, Wilson, Martin, Beekman, and Evbuomwan played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

