Win probability changed during the game. · 1 April 2025
It was more exciting than 99% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 43 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DEN leads and falls when MIN does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · MIN
Edwards · Randle · McDaniels · Conley · Alexander-Walker
Closing lineup · DEN
Jokic · Braun · Gordon · Watson · Westbrook
Anthony Edwards
50′ · +8
Julius Randle
50′ · +1
Jaden McDaniels
44′ · -7
Rudy Gobert
40′ · -10
Mike Conley
36′ · -22
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
45′ · +14
Jaylen Clark
9′ · +2
Josh Minott
12′ · +14
Rob Dillingham
4′ · +4
Luka Garza
0′ · 0
Nikola Jokic
53′ · +2
Christian Braun
53′ · +12
Aaron Gordon
47′ · +16
Peyton Watson
45′ · -11
Jalen Pickett
32′ · +4
Russell Westbrook
38′ · -5
Zeke Nnaji
11′ · -17
DeAndre Jordan
5′ · -3
Hunter Tyson
5′ · -3
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MIN and DEN.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Edwards, McDaniels, Conley, Gobert, and Randle played 13.0 minutes together.
Alexander-Walker, Edwards, McDaniels, Conley, and Randle played 10.2 minutes together.
Alexander-Walker, Edwards, McDaniels, Gobert, and Randle played 6.7 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Minnesota Timberwolves lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
Denver Nuggets
Braun, Watson, Westbrook, Gordon, and Jokic played 19.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Pickett, Braun, Watson, Gordon, and Jokic played 15.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Pickett, Braun, Westbrook, Gordon, and Jokic played 6.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 13 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Minnesota Timberwolves
Alexander-Walker, Edwards, Conley, Gobert, and Randle played 5.7 minutes together.
Alexander-Walker, Edwards, Minott, Clark, and Randle played 4.6 minutes together.
Alexander-Walker, McDaniels, Minott, Conley, and Gobert played 4.2 minutes together.
Alexander-Walker, Edwards, Dillingham, Gobert, and Randle played 4.0 minutes together.
Alexander-Walker, Edwards, McDaniels, Minott, and Randle played 3.3 minutes together.
Alexander-Walker, Edwards, McDaniels, Clark, and Gobert played 2.7 minutes together.
Alexander-Walker, McDaniels, Conley, Gobert, and Randle played 1.7 minutes together.
Alexander-Walker, McDaniels, Clark, Conley, and Gobert played 1.6 minutes together.
Denver Nuggets
Braun, Tyson, Westbrook, Jordan, and Gordon played 5.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Pickett, Nnaji, Watson, Westbrook, and Jokic played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 13 points.
Pickett, Nnaji, Braun, Watson, and Jokic played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Pickett, Nnaji, Braun, Westbrook, and Jokic played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Nnaji, Braun, Watson, Westbrook, and Jokic played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

