Win probability changed during the game. · 26 April 2025
It was more exciting than 62% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 19 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when LAC leads and falls when DEN does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · DEN
Jokic · Gordon · Braun · Porter · Murray
Closing lineup · LAC
Harden · Zubac · Leonard · Powell · Bogdanovic
Nikola Jokic
43′ · +4
Aaron Gordon
43′ · +1
Christian Braun
43′ · +4
Michael Porter Jr.
42′ · +2
Jamal Murray
42′ · +8
Jalen Pickett
6′ · -6
Vlatko Cancar
2′ · -5
Peyton Watson
13′ · +4
DeAndre Jordan
5′ · -2
James Harden
43′ · -4
Ivica Zubac
41′ · +1
Kawhi Leonard
40′ · -2
Norman Powell
36′ · -8
Kris Dunn
21′ · -12
Nicolas Batum
19′ · -6
Derrick Jones Jr.
15′ · +2
Ben Simmons
7′ · -3
Bogdan Bogdanovic
19′ · +22
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DEN and LAC.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Porter, Braun, Gordon, and Jokic played 33.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Murray, Braun, Watson, Gordon, and Jokic played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Murray, Porter, Pickett, Watson, and Jordan played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
LA Clippers
Powell, Dunn, Zubac, Harden, and Leonard played 16.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 14 points.
Powell, Zubac, Harden, Leonard, and Bogdanovic played 7.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 13 points.
Zubac, Jones, Harden, Leonard, and Bogdanovic played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Denver Nuggets
Porter, Braun, Watson, Gordon, and Jokic played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Cancar, Pickett, Braun, Gordon, and Jokic played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Porter, Pickett, Braun, Watson, and Jokic played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Murray, Porter, Watson, Jordan, and Gordon played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
LA Clippers
Powell, Dunn, Zubac, Batum, and Harden played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Powell, Zubac, Batum, Harden, and Leonard played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Zubac, Jones, Batum, Leonard, and Bogdanovic played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Simmons, Jones, Batum, Leonard, and Bogdanovic played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Powell, Simmons, Batum, Harden, and Leonard played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Simmons, Jones, Batum, Harden, and Bogdanovic played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Powell, Zubac, Jones, Batum, and Harden played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.
