Win probability changed during the game. · 12 January 2026
It was more exciting than 70% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when IND leads and falls when BOS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · BOS
Pritchard · White · Hauser · Scheierman · Simons
Closing lineup · IND
Siakam · Nembhard · Nesmith · Sheppard · Walker
Payton Pritchard
37′ · +1
Derrick White
36′ · +1
Sam Hauser
33′ · -6
Neemias Queta
32′ · -12
Baylor Scheierman
20′ · -8
Anfernee Simons
24′ · -4
Luka Garza
16′ · +10
Jordan Walsh
26′ · +4
Hugo Gonzalez
15′ · +4
Pascal Siakam
34′ · +11
Andrew Nembhard
33′ · +12
Aaron Nesmith
32′ · -8
Jay Huff
28′ · +20
Johnny Furphy
16′ · +12
Ben Sheppard
23′ · -16
Jarace Walker
25′ · -5
T.J. McConnell
15′ · -10
Micah Potter
13′ · -11
Quenton Jackson
15′ · +6
Tony Bradley
6′ · -1
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. BOS and IND.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Boston Celtics
White, Queta, Pritchard, Hauser, and Scheierman played 12.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
White, Queta, Pritchard, Hauser, and Walsh played 8.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Simons, Pritchard, Garza, Walsh, and Gonzalez played 6.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Indiana Pacers
Siakam, Nembhard, Nesmith, Huff, and Furphy played 10.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Nesmith, Potter, Walker, Sheppard, and McConnell played 6.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Siakam, Nembhard, Huff, Sheppard, and Furphy played 5.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Boston Celtics
White, Simons, Garza, Walsh, and Gonzalez played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
White, Simons, Queta, Walsh, and Gonzalez played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
White, Pritchard, Garza, Hauser, and Scheierman played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
White, Simons, Queta, Hauser, and Walsh played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Simons, Pritchard, Garza, Hauser, and Scheierman played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
White, Simons, Queta, Pritchard, and Hauser played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Simons, Queta, Pritchard, Hauser, and Scheierman played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Indiana Pacers
Siakam, Nembhard, Huff, Jackson, and Walker played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Siakam, Bradley, Nembhard, Jackson, and Walker played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Siakam, Nembhard, Nesmith, Huff, and Sheppard played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Nesmith, Huff, Jackson, Walker, and McConnell played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Siakam, Nesmith, Potter, Walker, and McConnell played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Nembhard, Nesmith, Huff, Jackson, and Sheppard played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Siakam, Nembhard, Potter, Walker, and Sheppard played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Bradley, Nesmith, Jackson, Walker, and McConnell played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Siakam, Nembhard, Nesmith, Potter, and Sheppard played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Siakam, Nesmith, Walker, Sheppard, and McConnell played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

