Win probability changed during the game. · 5 February 2026
It was more exciting than 94% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 32 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when ATL leads and falls when UTA does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · UTA
Collier · Bailey · Williams · Filipowski · Tshiebwe
Closing lineup · ATL
Johnson · Daniels · Alexander-Walker · Landale · Gueye
Isaiah Collier
48′ · -2
Ace Bailey
40′ · 0
Cody Williams
38′ · -10
Kyle Filipowski
28′ · -6
Lauri Markkanen
23′ · -3
Brice Sensabaugh
30′ · +2
Svi Mykhailiuk
23′ · +10
Oscar Tshiebwe
10′ · -1
Jalen Johnson
39′ · +7
Dyson Daniels
35′ · +9
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
34′ · +10
Jock Landale
32′ · +10
Zaccharie Risacher
19′ · -8
CJ McCollum
32′ · 0
Corey Kispert
25′ · -5
Asa Newell
16′ · -8
Mouhamed Gueye
9′ · -5
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. UTA and ATL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Utah Jazz
Markkanen, Williams, Collier, Filipowski, and Bailey played 10.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Markkanen, Sensabaugh, Williams, Collier, and Bailey played 9.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Mykhailiuk, Sensabaugh, Williams, Collier, and Filipowski played 7.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Atlanta Hawks
Landale, Alexander-Walker, Johnson, Daniels, and Risacher played 10.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Landale, Alexander-Walker, Johnson, Daniels, and McCollum played 9.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 17 points.
Alexander-Walker, Johnson, Kispert, Newell, and McCollum played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Utah Jazz
Mykhailiuk, Sensabaugh, Collier, Filipowski, and Bailey played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Mykhailiuk, Tshiebwe, Sensabaugh, Collier, and Bailey played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Tshiebwe, Williams, Collier, Filipowski, and Bailey played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Mykhailiuk, Tshiebwe, Williams, Collier, and Bailey played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Markkanen, Mykhailiuk, Williams, Collier, and Bailey played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Sensabaugh, Williams, Collier, Filipowski, and Bailey played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Markkanen, Mykhailiuk, Sensabaugh, Collier, and Bailey played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Atlanta Hawks
Alexander-Walker, Kispert, Gueye, Newell, and McCollum played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Kispert, Daniels, Gueye, Newell, and McCollum played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Johnson, Kispert, Daniels, Newell, and McCollum played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Landale, Kispert, Daniels, Gueye, and McCollum played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Landale, Alexander-Walker, Johnson, Kispert, and Risacher played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Landale, Johnson, Kispert, Daniels, and McCollum played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Landale, Johnson, Daniels, Risacher, and McCollum played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Alexander-Walker, Johnson, Kispert, Risacher, and Newell played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Landale, Alexander-Walker, Johnson, Risacher, and McCollum played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

