SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 13 March 2026

NOP105–107HOU
Is it worth watching?
Recommended

It was more exciting than 75% of NBA games since 2017

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ HOU winsNOP wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when HOU leads and falls when NOP does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · NOP

Trey Murphy III
Zion Williamson
Dejounte Murray
Yves Missi
Karlo Matkovic

Murphy · Williamson · Murray · Missi · Matkovic

Closing lineup · HOU

Kevin Durant
Amen Thompson
Jabari Smith Jr.
Dorian Finney-Smith
Clint Capela

Durant · Thompson · Smith · Finney-Smith · Capela

Q1Q2Q3Q4
NOP
Trey Murphy III

Trey Murphy III

37′ · +7

Herbert Jones

Herbert Jones

35′ · +3

Zion Williamson

Zion Williamson

34′ · -3

Dejounte Murray

Dejounte Murray

31′ · +19

Saddiq Bey

Saddiq Bey

30′ · -15

Yves Missi

Yves Missi

25′ · +1

Derik Queen

Derik Queen

12′ · -11

Jeremiah Fears

Jeremiah Fears

13′ · -11

Karlo Matkovic

Karlo Matkovic

22′ · 0

HOU
Kevin Durant

Kevin Durant

40′ · -1

Amen Thompson

Amen Thompson

40′ · +11

Jabari Smith Jr.

Jabari Smith Jr.

38′ · +4

Dorian Finney-Smith

Dorian Finney-Smith

27′ · +5

Tari Eason

Tari Eason

19′ · 0

Reed Sheppard

Reed Sheppard

32′ · -1

Clint Capela

Clint Capela

22′ · -5

Josh Okogie

Josh Okogie

13′ · +4

Jeff Green

Jeff Green

9′ · -7

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. NOP and HOU.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Murray, Williamson, Bey, Jones, and Murphy played 11.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Murray, Jones, Murphy, Matkovic, and Missi played 5.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Murray, Williamson, Bey, Murphy, and Matkovic played 3.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

Houston Rockets

  • Finney-Smith, Smith, Eason, Thompson, and Durant played 15.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Finney-Smith, Smith, Thompson, Sheppard, and Durant played 6.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Smith, Thompson, Sheppard, Green, and Capela played 5.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Williamson, Bey, Missi, Fears, and Queen played 3.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Murray, Jones, Murphy, Missi, and Queen played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Williamson, Jones, Murphy, Missi, and Fears played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Murray, Williamson, Jones, Murphy, and Matkovic played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Murray, Williamson, Bey, Matkovic, and Missi played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Williamson, Bey, Jones, Murphy, and Matkovic played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Bey, Jones, Missi, Fears, and Queen played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Jones, Murphy, Missi, Fears, and Queen played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Williamson, Bey, Matkovic, Fears, and Queen played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Williamson, Bey, Matkovic, Missi, and Fears played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Murray, Williamson, Jones, Murphy, and Missi played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Bey, Jones, Murphy, Matkovic, and Missi played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

Houston Rockets

  • Smith, Thompson, Sheppard, Durant, and Capela played 4.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Okogie, Smith, Thompson, Sheppard, and Capela played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Finney-Smith, Okogie, Sheppard, Durant, and Capela played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Okogie, Eason, Sheppard, Durant, and Green played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Okogie, Thompson, Sheppard, Durant, and Capela played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Okogie, Smith, Sheppard, Durant, and Capela played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Finney-Smith, Thompson, Sheppard, Durant, and Capela played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Smith, Thompson, Sheppard, Durant, and Green played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
18.055
100% of capacity
Toyota Center · Houston
Scoring
212
combined points
19.2 below the season average (231.2)