Win probability changed during the game. · 13 March 2026
It was more exciting than 75% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when HOU leads and falls when NOP does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · NOP
Murphy · Williamson · Murray · Missi · Matkovic
Closing lineup · HOU
Durant · Thompson · Smith · Finney-Smith · Capela
Trey Murphy III
37′ · +7
Herbert Jones
35′ · +3
Zion Williamson
34′ · -3
Dejounte Murray
31′ · +19
Saddiq Bey
30′ · -15
Yves Missi
25′ · +1
Derik Queen
12′ · -11
Jeremiah Fears
13′ · -11
Karlo Matkovic
22′ · 0
Kevin Durant
40′ · -1
Amen Thompson
40′ · +11
Jabari Smith Jr.
38′ · +4
Dorian Finney-Smith
27′ · +5
Tari Eason
19′ · 0
Reed Sheppard
32′ · -1
Clint Capela
22′ · -5
Josh Okogie
13′ · +4
Jeff Green
9′ · -7
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. NOP and HOU.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
New Orleans Pelicans
Murray, Williamson, Bey, Jones, and Murphy played 11.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Murray, Jones, Murphy, Matkovic, and Missi played 5.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Murray, Williamson, Bey, Murphy, and Matkovic played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Houston Rockets
Finney-Smith, Smith, Eason, Thompson, and Durant played 15.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Finney-Smith, Smith, Thompson, Sheppard, and Durant played 6.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Smith, Thompson, Sheppard, Green, and Capela played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
New Orleans Pelicans
Williamson, Bey, Missi, Fears, and Queen played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Murray, Jones, Murphy, Missi, and Queen played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Williamson, Jones, Murphy, Missi, and Fears played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Murray, Williamson, Jones, Murphy, and Matkovic played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Murray, Williamson, Bey, Matkovic, and Missi played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Williamson, Bey, Jones, Murphy, and Matkovic played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Bey, Jones, Missi, Fears, and Queen played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Jones, Murphy, Missi, Fears, and Queen played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Williamson, Bey, Matkovic, Fears, and Queen played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Williamson, Bey, Matkovic, Missi, and Fears played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Murray, Williamson, Jones, Murphy, and Missi played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Bey, Jones, Murphy, Matkovic, and Missi played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Houston Rockets
Smith, Thompson, Sheppard, Durant, and Capela played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Okogie, Smith, Thompson, Sheppard, and Capela played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Finney-Smith, Okogie, Sheppard, Durant, and Capela played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Okogie, Eason, Sheppard, Durant, and Green played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Okogie, Thompson, Sheppard, Durant, and Capela played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Okogie, Smith, Sheppard, Durant, and Capela played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Finney-Smith, Thompson, Sheppard, Durant, and Capela played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Smith, Thompson, Sheppard, Durant, and Green played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

