Win probability changed during the game. · 1 May 2026
It was more exciting than 90% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 34 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when TOR leads and falls when CLE does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · CLE
Harden · Mobley · Mitchell · Strus · Wade
Closing lineup · TOR
Barnes · Walter · Barrett · Shead · Murray-Boyles
James Harden
44′ · +11
Evan Mobley
41′ · -3
Donovan Mitchell
41′ · -4
Jarrett Allen
34′ · +8
Max Strus
20′ · -4
Dean Wade
28′ · +10
Sam Merrill
18′ · -6
Dennis Schroder
16′ · -9
Jaylon Tyson
16′ · -6
Thomas Bryant
7′ · -7
Scottie Barnes
48′ · +2
Ja'Kobe Walter
43′ · -6
RJ Barrett
43′ · +9
Jamal Shead
33′ · +6
Jakob Poeltl
22′ · 0
Collin Murray-Boyles
40′ · +2
Jamison Battle
11′ · -6
Sandro Mamukelashvili
14′ · +4
A.J. Lawson
10′ · -1
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. CLE and TOR.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Mitchell, Allen, Wade, Mobley, and Harden played 13.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Mitchell, Allen, Strus, Mobley, and Harden played 10.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Mitchell, Allen, Mobley, Harden, and Schroder played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Toronto Raptors
Barrett, Barnes, Walter, Shead, and Murray-Boyles played 14.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Poeltl, Barrett, Barnes, Walter, and Shead played 6.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Barrett, Barnes, Mamukelashvili, Lawson, and Murray-Boyles played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See every lineup of the game
Cleveland Cavaliers
Mitchell, Wade, Merrill, Mobley, and Schroder played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Allen, Strus, Wade, Merrill, and Harden played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Mitchell, Bryant, Wade, Tyson, and Schroder played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Mitchell, Bryant, Mobley, Tyson, and Harden played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Allen, Wade, Merrill, Tyson, and Harden played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Mitchell, Strus, Merrill, Mobley, and Harden played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Mitchell, Bryant, Mobley, Tyson, and Schroder played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Strus, Merrill, Mobley, Tyson, and Harden played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Merrill, Mobley, Tyson, Harden, and Schroder played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Strus, Merrill, Mobley, Harden, and Schroder played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Allen, Strus, Wade, Tyson, and Harden played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Mitchell, Wade, Merrill, Tyson, and Schroder played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Toronto Raptors
Barrett, Barnes, Walter, Battle, and Murray-Boyles played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Barrett, Walter, Shead, Battle, and Murray-Boyles played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Poeltl, Barrett, Lawson, Walter, and Murray-Boyles played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Poeltl, Barrett, Barnes, Walter, and Murray-Boyles played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Poeltl, Barrett, Barnes, Lawson, and Shead played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Poeltl, Barnes, Walter, Battle, and Murray-Boyles played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Poeltl, Barnes, Mamukelashvili, Walter, and Battle played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Barrett, Barnes, Mamukelashvili, Walter, and Murray-Boyles played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Barnes, Mamukelashvili, Walter, Shead, and Murray-Boyles played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Barnes, Mamukelashvili, Lawson, Walter, and Murray-Boyles played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Poeltl, Barrett, Barnes, Mamukelashvili, and Shead played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Poeltl, Barrett, Barnes, Shead, and Murray-Boyles played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Barnes, Walter, Shead, Battle, and Murray-Boyles played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Barrett, Barnes, Mamukelashvili, Shead, and Murray-Boyles played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

