SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 10 April 2019

IND135–134ATL
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 97% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ ATL winsIND wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when ATL leads and falls when IND does.

Game context

Attendance
17.143
100.6% of capacity
State Farm Arena · Atlanta
Scoring
269
combined points
46.6 above the season average (222.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

15 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Personal · 00:59.2
Aaron Holiday → Trae Young
RLS shows Holiday (IND) moves laterally into Young's (ATL) body and initiates contact that affects his SQBR. The illegal contact causes Young to pin the ball against his body and pause his dribble.