Win probability changed during the game. · 9 December 2019
It was more exciting than 91% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when HOU leads and falls when SAC does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · SAC
Joseph · Barnes · Hield · Bjelica · Bogdanovic
Closing lineup · HOU
Harden · Capela · Westbrook · Tucker · House
Cory Joseph
38′ · +5
Richaun Holmes
36′ · +3
Harrison Barnes
33′ · +7
Buddy Hield
33′ · +14
Nemanja Bjelica
30′ · -7
Bogdan Bogdanovic
32′ · -5
Trevor Ariza
26′ · 0
Yogi Ferrell
11′ · -12
James Harden
40′ · -6
Clint Capela
37′ · -1
Russell Westbrook
36′ · +1
P.J. Tucker
35′ · -3
Danuel House Jr.
34′ · -19
Ben McLemore
33′ · +14
Gary Clark
22′ · +6
Chris Clemons
4′ · +3
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAC and HOU.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Sacramento Kings
Holmes, Hield, Bjelica, Joseph, and Barnes played 12.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 13 points.
Ferrell, Bjelica, Barnes, Bogdanovic, and Ariza played 7.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Holmes, Hield, Joseph, Barnes, and Bogdanovic played 6.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Houston Rockets
House, Tucker, Westbrook, Harden, and Capela played 14.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 15 points.
House, Clark, Westbrook, McLemore, and Capela played 8.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
House, Tucker, Harden, McLemore, and Capela played 5.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Sacramento Kings
Holmes, Hield, Joseph, Bogdanovic, and Ariza played 6.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 12 points.
Holmes, Joseph, Barnes, Bogdanovic, and Ariza played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Holmes, Bjelica, Joseph, Bogdanovic, and Ariza played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Holmes, Hield, Bjelica, Joseph, and Bogdanovic played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Hield, Joseph, Barnes, Bogdanovic, and Ariza played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Hield, Ferrell, Bjelica, Barnes, and Ariza played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Hield, Ferrell, Bjelica, Joseph, and Ariza played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Holmes, Ferrell, Bjelica, Bogdanovic, and Ariza played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Houston Rockets
Tucker, Westbrook, Harden, McLemore, and Capela played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 11 points.
Clark, Tucker, Harden, McLemore, and Capela played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Clark, Clemons, Westbrook, Harden, and McLemore played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Clark, Tucker, Westbrook, Harden, and McLemore played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
House, Clark, Tucker, Harden, and McLemore played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
House, Clark, Westbrook, Harden, and McLemore played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
House, Tucker, Westbrook, Harden, and McLemore played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

