SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 4 January 2020

NOP117–115SAC
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 89% of NBA games since 2017

  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 29 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ SAC winsNOP wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when SAC leads and falls when NOP does.

Game context

Attendance
16.808
95.4% of capacity
Golden 1 Center · Sacramento
Scoring
232
combined points
8.4 above the season average (223.6)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

23 calls reviewed2 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Offensive · 00:04.1
Derrick Favors → Trevor Ariza
Favors (NOP) moves into Ariza (SAC) and delivers contact on his screen that dislodges Ariza from his legal guarding position.
Foul: Loose Ball · 00:58.4
Jrue Holiday → Richaun Holmes
As the shot is in the air, Holiday (NOP) pushes Hield (SAC) in the back and the contact dislodges him into Fox (SAC), affecting his ability to land safely from his jump shot attempt.