SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 27 January 2020

SAS109–110CHI
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 94% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 24 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ CHI winsSAS wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when CHI leads and falls when SAS does.

Game context

Attendance
16.071
76.8% of capacity
United Center · Chicago
Scoring
219
combined points
4.6 below the season average (223.6)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

21 calls reviewed4 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Shooting · 00:50.5
Jakob Poeltl → Thaddeus Young
Poeltl (SAS) makes contact to Young's (CHI) body and arm during his shooting motion that affects his play at the basket.
Foul: Personal · 01:14.5
Kris Dunn → DeMar DeRozan
Dunn (CHI) makes contact to DeRozan's (SAS) arm during his dribble, causing the ball to go out of bounds.
Turnover: Traveling · 01:34.9
Thaddeus Young → Spurs
Young (CHI) slides his pivot foot after gaining possession of the rebound.
Foul: Offensive · 01:48.7
Tomas Satoransky → Patty Mills
Satoransky (CHI) makes incidental contact with Mills' (SAS) chin as he makes a natural move toward the basket. Mills initiates the contact by moving into his body.