Win probability changed during the game. · 26 February 2020
It was more exciting than 95% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 27 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIA leads and falls when MIN does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · MIN
Beasley · Russell · Hernangomez · Layman · McLaughlin
Closing lineup · MIA
Butler · Adebayo · Robinson · Dragic · Crowder
Malik Beasley
33′ · +9
D'Angelo Russell
31′ · 0
Juancho Hernangomez
31′ · 0
Josh Okogie
28′ · -4
Naz Reid
19′ · +2
Jake Layman
13′ · 0
James Johnson
23′ · -12
Jarrett Culver
21′ · -1
Kelan Martin
19′ · -1
Jordan McLaughlin
22′ · +20
Jimmy Butler III
35′ · +4
Bam Adebayo
33′ · +4
Kendrick Nunn
31′ · +6
Duncan Robinson
26′ · -9
Kelly Olynyk
16′ · +2
Goran Dragic
26′ · +3
Jae Crowder
32′ · -7
Derrick Jones Jr.
20′ · -5
Andre Iguodala
20′ · -13
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MIN and MIA.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Russell, Beasley, Hernangomez, Okogie, and Reid played 10.7 minutes together.
Beasley, Martin, McLaughlin, Culver, and Johnson played 9.0 minutes together.
Russell, Beasley, Hernangomez, Okogie, and Johnson played 5.7 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Minnesota Timberwolves lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
Miami Heat
Adebayo, Robinson, Nunn, Butler, and Olynyk played 13.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Jones, Robinson, Dragic, Crowder, and Iguodala played 9.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Adebayo, Nunn, Butler, Crowder, and Iguodala played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Minnesota Timberwolves
Russell, Beasley, Hernangomez, Okogie, and McLaughlin played 3.5 minutes together.
Russell, Layman, Hernangomez, Okogie, and Johnson played 2.7 minutes together.
Layman, Martin, McLaughlin, Culver, and Johnson played 2.5 minutes together.
Beasley, Martin, McLaughlin, Culver, and Reid played 2.2 minutes together.
Russell, Layman, Hernangomez, Culver, and Reid played 2.2 minutes together.
Russell, Layman, Martin, Culver, and Johnson played 1.5 minutes together.
Russell, Layman, Hernangomez, Okogie, and Reid played 1.4 minutes together.
Russell, Hernangomez, Okogie, Martin, and Culver played 1.4 minutes together.
Beasley, Okogie, Martin, McLaughlin, and Reid played 1.2 minutes together.
Russell, Hernangomez, Okogie, McLaughlin, and Johnson played 1.1 minutes together.
Miami Heat
Adebayo, Nunn, Dragic, Butler, and Olynyk played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Jones, Adebayo, Nunn, Butler, and Crowder played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Jones, Robinson, Dragic, Butler, and Crowder played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Adebayo, Nunn, Dragic, Butler, and Crowder played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Adebayo, Dragic, Butler, Crowder, and Iguodala played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Adebayo, Nunn, Dragic, Crowder, and Iguodala played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Jones, Adebayo, Dragic, Butler, and Crowder played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Jones, Nunn, Dragic, Butler, and Crowder played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

