SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 26 February 2020

MIN129–126MIA
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 95% of NBA games since 2017

  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 27 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ MIA winsMIN wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIA leads and falls when MIN does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · MIN

Malik Beasley
D'Angelo Russell
Juancho Hernangomez
Jake Layman
Jordan McLaughlin

Beasley · Russell · Hernangomez · Layman · McLaughlin

Closing lineup · MIA

Jimmy Butler III
Bam Adebayo
Duncan Robinson
Goran Dragic
Jae Crowder

Butler · Adebayo · Robinson · Dragic · Crowder

Q1Q2Q3Q4
MIN
Malik Beasley

Malik Beasley

33′ · +9

D'Angelo Russell

D'Angelo Russell

31′ · 0

Juancho Hernangomez

Juancho Hernangomez

31′ · 0

Josh Okogie

Josh Okogie

28′ · -4

Naz Reid

Naz Reid

19′ · +2

Jake Layman

Jake Layman

13′ · 0

James Johnson

James Johnson

23′ · -12

Jarrett Culver

Jarrett Culver

21′ · -1

Kelan Martin

Kelan Martin

19′ · -1

Jordan McLaughlin

Jordan McLaughlin

22′ · +20

MIA
Jimmy Butler III

Jimmy Butler III

35′ · +4

Bam Adebayo

Bam Adebayo

33′ · +4

Kendrick Nunn

Kendrick Nunn

31′ · +6

Duncan Robinson

Duncan Robinson

26′ · -9

Kelly Olynyk

Kelly Olynyk

16′ · +2

Goran Dragic

Goran Dragic

26′ · +3

Jae Crowder

Jae Crowder

32′ · -7

Derrick Jones Jr.

Derrick Jones Jr.

20′ · -5

Andre Iguodala

Andre Iguodala

20′ · -13

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MIN and MIA.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Russell, Beasley, Hernangomez, Okogie, and Reid played 10.7 minutes together.

  • Beasley, Martin, McLaughlin, Culver, and Johnson played 9.0 minutes together.

  • Russell, Beasley, Hernangomez, Okogie, and Johnson played 5.7 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each Minnesota Timberwolves lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

Miami Heat

  • Adebayo, Robinson, Nunn, Butler, and Olynyk played 13.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Jones, Robinson, Dragic, Crowder, and Iguodala played 9.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Adebayo, Nunn, Butler, Crowder, and Iguodala played 5.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Russell, Beasley, Hernangomez, Okogie, and McLaughlin played 3.5 minutes together.

  • Russell, Layman, Hernangomez, Okogie, and Johnson played 2.7 minutes together.

  • Layman, Martin, McLaughlin, Culver, and Johnson played 2.5 minutes together.

  • Beasley, Martin, McLaughlin, Culver, and Reid played 2.2 minutes together.

  • Russell, Layman, Hernangomez, Culver, and Reid played 2.2 minutes together.

  • Russell, Layman, Martin, Culver, and Johnson played 1.5 minutes together.

  • Russell, Layman, Hernangomez, Okogie, and Reid played 1.4 minutes together.

  • Russell, Hernangomez, Okogie, Martin, and Culver played 1.4 minutes together.

  • Beasley, Okogie, Martin, McLaughlin, and Reid played 1.2 minutes together.

  • Russell, Hernangomez, Okogie, McLaughlin, and Johnson played 1.1 minutes together.

Miami Heat

  • Adebayo, Nunn, Dragic, Butler, and Olynyk played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Jones, Adebayo, Nunn, Butler, and Crowder played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Jones, Robinson, Dragic, Butler, and Crowder played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Adebayo, Nunn, Dragic, Butler, and Crowder played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Adebayo, Dragic, Butler, Crowder, and Iguodala played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Adebayo, Nunn, Dragic, Crowder, and Iguodala played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Jones, Adebayo, Dragic, Butler, and Crowder played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Jones, Nunn, Dragic, Butler, and Crowder played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
19.600
100% of capacity
Kaseya Center · Miami
Scoring
255
combined points
31.4 above the season average (223.6)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

17 calls reviewed0 no admitted errors