SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 3 September 2020

TOR104–103BOS
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 90% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 25 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ BOS winsTOR wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when BOS leads and falls when TOR does.

Game context

Series
Game 3
Conference semifinals
BOS 4-3
Scoring
207
combined points
12.1 below the season average (219.1)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

11 calls reviewed2 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Defense 3 Second · 00:02.1
Kyle Lowry → Celtics
Lowry (TOR) is in lane for longer than three seconds without actively guarding an opponent.
Foul: Shooting · 00:22.5
Daniel Theis → Fred VanVleet
Theis (BOS) jumps from point A to point B and he delivers contact to VanVleet's (TOR) body affecting his driving shot attempt.