Win probability changed during the game. · 23 December 2020
It was more exciting than 98% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 28 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DEN leads and falls when SAC does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · SAC
Barnes · Hield · Fox · Joseph · Whiteside
Closing lineup · DEN
Jokic · Harris · Millsap · Porter · Barton
Harrison Barnes
42′ · +3
Buddy Hield
41′ · -2
De'Aaron Fox
39′ · -2
Marvin Bagley III
27′ · +2
Richaun Holmes
23′ · +1
Cory Joseph
29′ · +8
Hassan Whiteside
18′ · +3
Nemanja Bjelica
16′ · -4
Tyrese Haliburton
30′ · +1
Nikola Jokic
42′ · +5
Gary Harris
42′ · +5
Paul Millsap
36′ · -6
Jamal Murray
34′ · +3
Michael Porter Jr.
30′ · 0
Will Barton
33′ · +1
Monte Morris
16′ · -7
PJ Dozier
15′ · -6
Facundo Campazzo
8′ · -4
Isaiah Hartenstein
9′ · -1
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAC and DEN.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Sacramento Kings
Holmes, Hield, Fox, Bagley, and Barnes played 12.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Hield, Bagley, Haliburton, Joseph, and Barnes played 10.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Fox, Haliburton, Whiteside, Bjelica, and Joseph played 7.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Porter, Millsap, Harris, and Jokic played 14.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Murray, Millsap, Barton, Harris, and Jokic played 10.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Porter, Millsap, Barton, Harris, and Jokic played 6.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See every lineup of the game
Sacramento Kings
Hield, Fox, Whiteside, Joseph, and Barnes played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Holmes, Hield, Fox, Bjelica, and Barnes played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Hield, Fox, Haliburton, Whiteside, and Barnes played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Holmes, Fox, Haliburton, Joseph, and Barnes played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Hield, Haliburton, Whiteside, Bjelica, and Joseph played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Holmes, Fox, Haliburton, Bjelica, and Barnes played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Hield, Fox, Bagley, Haliburton, and Barnes played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Holmes, Hield, Fox, Bagley, and Haliburton played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Holmes, Hield, Bagley, Joseph, and Barnes played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Denver Nuggets
Hartenstein, Dozier, Morris, Campazzo, and Barton played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Murray, Hartenstein, Morris, Porter, and Barton played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Murray, Porter, Barton, Harris, and Jokic played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Dozier, Morris, Campazzo, Barton, and Jokic played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Dozier, Morris, Campazzo, Millsap, and Barton played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Hartenstein, Dozier, Morris, Porter, and Harris played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Murray, Dozier, Millsap, Harris, and Jokic played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Murray, Dozier, Morris, Harris, and Jokic played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

