SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 23 December 2020

SAC124–122DEN
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 98% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 28 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ DEN winsSAC wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DEN leads and falls when SAC does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · SAC

Harrison Barnes
Buddy Hield
De'Aaron Fox
Cory Joseph
Hassan Whiteside

Barnes · Hield · Fox · Joseph · Whiteside

Closing lineup · DEN

Nikola Jokic
Gary Harris
Paul Millsap
Michael Porter Jr.
Will Barton

Jokic · Harris · Millsap · Porter · Barton

Q1Q2Q3Q4OT1
SAC
Harrison Barnes

Harrison Barnes

42′ · +3

Buddy Hield

Buddy Hield

41′ · -2

De'Aaron Fox

De'Aaron Fox

39′ · -2

Marvin Bagley III

Marvin Bagley III

27′ · +2

Richaun Holmes

Richaun Holmes

23′ · +1

Cory Joseph

Cory Joseph

29′ · +8

Hassan Whiteside

Hassan Whiteside

18′ · +3

Nemanja Bjelica

Nemanja Bjelica

16′ · -4

Tyrese Haliburton

Tyrese Haliburton

30′ · +1

DEN
Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic

42′ · +5

Gary Harris

Gary Harris

42′ · +5

Paul Millsap

Paul Millsap

36′ · -6

Jamal Murray

Jamal Murray

34′ · +3

Michael Porter Jr.

Michael Porter Jr.

30′ · 0

Will Barton

Will Barton

33′ · +1

Monte Morris

Monte Morris

16′ · -7

PJ Dozier

PJ Dozier

15′ · -6

Facundo Campazzo

Facundo Campazzo

8′ · -4

Isaiah Hartenstein

Isaiah Hartenstein

9′ · -1

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAC and DEN.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Sacramento Kings

  • Holmes, Hield, Fox, Bagley, and Barnes played 12.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Hield, Bagley, Haliburton, Joseph, and Barnes played 10.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Fox, Haliburton, Whiteside, Bjelica, and Joseph played 7.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

Denver Nuggets

  • Murray, Porter, Millsap, Harris, and Jokic played 14.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Murray, Millsap, Barton, Harris, and Jokic played 10.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Porter, Millsap, Barton, Harris, and Jokic played 6.4 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

▸See every lineup of the game

Sacramento Kings

  • Hield, Fox, Whiteside, Joseph, and Barnes played 5.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Holmes, Hield, Fox, Bjelica, and Barnes played 4.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Hield, Fox, Haliburton, Whiteside, and Barnes played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Holmes, Fox, Haliburton, Joseph, and Barnes played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Hield, Haliburton, Whiteside, Bjelica, and Joseph played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Holmes, Fox, Haliburton, Bjelica, and Barnes played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Hield, Fox, Bagley, Haliburton, and Barnes played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Holmes, Hield, Fox, Bagley, and Haliburton played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Holmes, Hield, Bagley, Joseph, and Barnes played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

Denver Nuggets

  • Hartenstein, Dozier, Morris, Campazzo, and Barton played 3.6 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Murray, Hartenstein, Morris, Porter, and Barton played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Murray, Porter, Barton, Harris, and Jokic played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Dozier, Morris, Campazzo, Barton, and Jokic played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Dozier, Morris, Campazzo, Millsap, and Barton played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Hartenstein, Dozier, Morris, Porter, and Harris played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Murray, Dozier, Millsap, Harris, and Jokic played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Murray, Dozier, Morris, Harris, and Jokic played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Scoring
246
combined points
21.8 above the season average (224.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

21 calls reviewed5 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Shooting · 00:01.5
Will Barton → Harrison Barnes
Barton (DEN) jumps from point A to point B into Barnes (SAC) and makes contact with his arm and body that affect the dunk attempt.
Foul: Personal · 00:06.2
Harrison Barnes → Nikola Jokic
Barnes (SAC) makes contact to Jokic's (DEN) arms as he receives the inbound pass and causes him to lose possession of the ball.
Turnover: Traveling · 00:08.4
Harrison Barnes → Nuggets
Barnes (SAC) takes more than two steps after gathering the ball.
Turnover: Traveling · 01:52.5
Harrison Barnes → Nuggets
Barnes (SAC) splits his pivot foot prior to the start of his drive.