Win probability changed during the game. · 4 January 2021
It was more exciting than 95% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 36 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when NOP leads and falls when IND does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · IND
Brogdon · Oladipo · Holiday · McDermott · Sampson
Closing lineup · NOP
Ingram · Ball · Williamson · Bledsoe · Adams
Malcolm Brogdon
46′ · +9
Victor Oladipo
36′ · +8
Domantas Sabonis
35′ · -13
Myles Turner
23′ · -2
Aaron Holiday
20′ · -15
Justin Holiday
45′ · +11
Doug McDermott
29′ · +14
T.J. McConnell
24′ · -1
JaKarr Sampson
9′ · -1
Brandon Ingram
40′ · -6
Lonzo Ball
38′ · -2
Zion Williamson
35′ · +18
Eric Bledsoe
34′ · +1
Steven Adams
31′ · +3
JJ Redick
33′ · -2
Josh Hart
29′ · -9
Jaxson Hayes
14′ · -6
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
11′ · -4
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. IND and NOP.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Indiana Pacers
Sabonis, Brogdon, Holiday, McDermott, and McConnell played 9.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Sabonis, Brogdon, Holiday, Holiday, and Oladipo played 8.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Turner, Sabonis, Brogdon, Holiday, and Oladipo played 8.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
New Orleans Pelicans
Ingram, Ball, Williamson, Bledsoe, and Adams played 13.8 minutes together.
Ingram, Ball, Williamson, Redick, and Adams played 7.4 minutes together.
Ingram, Ball, Hart, Redick, and Adams played 6.8 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each New Orleans Pelicans lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
▸See every lineup of the game
Indiana Pacers
Turner, Brogdon, Holiday, Oladipo, and McDermott played 7.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 12 points.
Brogdon, Holiday, Oladipo, Sampson, and McConnell played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Sabonis, Holiday, McDermott, Sampson, and McConnell played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Sabonis, Brogdon, Holiday, Oladipo, and McDermott played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Turner, Brogdon, Holiday, Oladipo, and McConnell played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Turner, Holiday, Holiday, McDermott, and McConnell played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Turner, Sabonis, Brogdon, Holiday, and Oladipo played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Sabonis, Holiday, Holiday, McDermott, and McConnell played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Brogdon, Holiday, Oladipo, McDermott, and Sampson played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
New Orleans Pelicans
Hart, Williamson, Hayes, Redick, and Bledsoe played 5.5 minutes together.
Ingram, Hart, Hayes, Redick, and Bledsoe played 4.6 minutes together.
Hart, Williamson, Alexander-Walker, Redick, and Bledsoe played 4.5 minutes together.
Ball, Hart, Williamson, Alexander-Walker, and Bledsoe played 3.0 minutes together.
Ingram, Ball, Hayes, Alexander-Walker, and Redick played 2.2 minutes together.
Ingram, Ball, Hart, Bledsoe, and Adams played 2.1 minutes together.
Ingram, Ball, Hart, Hayes, and Redick played 1.6 minutes together.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

