Win probability changed during the game. · 30 January 2021
It was more exciting than 81% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 19 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when CHI leads and falls when POR does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · POR
Trent · Lillard · Freedom · Covington · Hood
Closing lineup · CHI
Markkanen · LaVine · White · Young · Temple
Gary Trent Jr.
37′ · +9
Damian Lillard
36′ · 0
Enes Freedom
34′ · +17
Robert Covington
34′ · +19
Nassir Little
14′ · +6
Carmelo Anthony
17′ · -23
Rodney Hood
27′ · -4
Anfernee Simons
27′ · -3
Harry Giles III
13′ · -18
Lauri Markkanen
36′ · +8
Zach LaVine
35′ · +6
Coby White
34′ · -17
Patrick Williams
24′ · -12
Daniel Gafford
10′ · -15
Thaddeus Young
29′ · +13
Garrett Temple
25′ · +18
Otto Porter Jr.
24′ · -12
Denzel Valentine
5′ · +4
Cristiano Felicio
5′ · -1
Tomas Satoransky
13′ · +3
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. POR and CHI.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Portland Trail Blazers
Trent, Little, Freedom, Lillard, and Covington played 13.6 minutes together.
Giles, Simons, Trent, Hood, and Anthony played 6.9 minutes together.
Giles, Simons, Lillard, Hood, and Anthony played 6.5 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Portland Trail Blazers lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
Chicago Bulls
Markkanen, Young, Temple, Satoransky, and LaVine played 6.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 12 points.
Markkanen, White, Gafford, Williams, and LaVine played 6.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
Markkanen, White, Williams, Porter, and LaVine played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See every lineup of the game
Portland Trail Blazers
Trent, Freedom, Lillard, Covington, and Hood played 5.0 minutes together.
Simons, Trent, Freedom, Covington, and Hood played 4.7 minutes together.
Simons, Trent, Freedom, Lillard, and Covington played 3.4 minutes together.
Simons, Freedom, Lillard, Covington, and Hood played 3.3 minutes together.
Trent, Freedom, Lillard, Covington, and Anthony played 2.3 minutes together.
Simons, Freedom, Lillard, Covington, and Anthony played 1.3 minutes together.
Chicago Bulls
Markkanen, White, Williams, Young, and Porter played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Markkanen, White, Williams, Young, and Temple played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Markkanen, White, Young, Temple, and LaVine played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Felicio, Valentine, Temple, Porter, and LaVine played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Markkanen, White, Williams, Young, and LaVine played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
White, Young, Temple, Satoransky, and Porter played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
White, Gafford, Williams, Young, and Porter played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Markkanen, White, Satoransky, Porter, and LaVine played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
White, Young, Satoransky, Porter, and LaVine played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

