Win probability changed during the game. · 11 February 2021
It was more exciting than 92% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 16 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when POR leads and falls when PHI does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · PHI
Harris · Simmons · Embiid · Curry · Green
Closing lineup · POR
Trent · Lillard · Covington · Jones · Anthony
Tobias Harris
38′ · -14
Ben Simmons
37′ · +7
Joel Embiid
35′ · +9
Seth Curry
35′ · +9
Danny Green
31′ · +3
Furkan Korkmaz
24′ · -1
Matisse Thybulle
15′ · -7
Tyrese Maxey
13′ · -13
Dwight Howard
13′ · -13
Gary Trent Jr.
37′ · +11
Damian Lillard
36′ · -8
Enes Freedom
32′ · -7
Robert Covington
25′ · -2
Derrick Jones Jr.
23′ · 0
Carmelo Anthony
26′ · +6
Rodney Hood
24′ · +3
Anfernee Simons
23′ · +6
Harry Giles III
14′ · +11
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. PHI and POR.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Philadelphia 76ers
Simmons, Green, Harris, Curry, and Embiid played 23.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Korkmaz, Thybulle, Maxey, Harris, and Howard played 10.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Simmons, Korkmaz, Green, Curry, and Embiid played 6.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
Portland Trail Blazers
Jones, Trent, Freedom, Lillard, and Covington played 14.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Giles, Simons, Trent, Hood, and Anthony played 8.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 12 points.
Jones, Trent, Freedom, Lillard, and Anthony played 7.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Philadelphia 76ers
Simmons, Korkmaz, Harris, Curry, and Embiid played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Simmons, Korkmaz, Thybulle, Curry, and Embiid played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Simmons, Korkmaz, Thybulle, Maxey, and Howard played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Korkmaz, Maxey, Green, Harris, and Howard played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Portland Trail Blazers
Giles, Simons, Lillard, Hood, and Anthony played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Simons, Freedom, Lillard, Covington, and Hood played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Simons, Trent, Freedom, Covington, and Hood played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Simons, Freedom, Lillard, Hood, and Anthony played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Trent, Freedom, Lillard, Covington, and Anthony played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Trent, Lillard, Covington, Hood, and Anthony played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

