Win probability changed during the game. · 17 February 2021
It was more exciting than 81% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when WAS leads and falls when DEN does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · DEN
Murray · Jokic · Porter · Green · Campazzo
Closing lineup · WAS
Westbrook · Beal · Hachimura · Bertans · Lopez
Jamal Murray
40′ · +3
Nikola Jokic
37′ · +5
Michael Porter Jr.
31′ · +1
JaMychal Green
30′ · +8
Gary Harris
28′ · +10
Facundo Campazzo
25′ · -7
Monte Morris
19′ · -10
Zeke Nnaji
13′ · -8
Isaiah Hartenstein
10′ · -7
R.J. Hampton
7′ · -5
Russell Westbrook
39′ · 0
Bradley Beal
37′ · -1
Rui Hachimura
29′ · -6
Garrison Mathews
17′ · -16
Moritz Wagner
3′ · -6
Alex Len
18′ · +2
Raul Neto
20′ · +2
Davis Bertans
30′ · +10
Robin Lopez
27′ · +11
Deni Avdija
21′ · +14
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DEN and WAS.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Porter, Green, Harris, and Jokic played 22.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Murray, Hartenstein, Morris, Nnaji, and Campazzo played 6.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Murray, Campazzo, Green, Harris, and Jokic played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Washington Wizards
Avdija, Westbrook, Lopez, Bertans, and Neto played 11.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Hachimura, Mathews, Westbrook, Beal, and Len played 11.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Hachimura, Westbrook, Lopez, Bertans, and Beal played 7.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Hartenstein, Morris, Hampton, and Campazzo played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Morris, Hampton, Nnaji, Campazzo, and Jokic played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Morris, Porter, Campazzo, Green, and Jokic played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Morris, Porter, Nnaji, Campazzo, and Jokic played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Murray, Porter, Campazzo, Harris, and Jokic played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Murray, Morris, Hampton, Nnaji, and Campazzo played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Washington Wizards
Avdija, Lopez, Bertans, Beal, and Neto played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Wagner, Hachimura, Mathews, Westbrook, and Beal played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Hachimura, Bertans, Beal, Len, and Neto played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Avdija, Westbrook, Lopez, Bertans, and Beal played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Hachimura, Mathews, Westbrook, Lopez, and Beal played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Hachimura, Avdija, Westbrook, Beal, and Len played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Avdija, Bertans, Beal, Len, and Neto played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

