Win probability changed during the game. · 24 February 2021
It was more exciting than 83% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 22 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when OKC leads and falls when SAS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · SAS
Poeltl · Walker · Murray · Mills · Bates-Diop
Closing lineup · OKC
Gilgeous-Alexander · Maledon · Dort · Bazley · Horford
Jakob Poeltl
35′ · -15
Lonnie Walker IV
33′ · -7
Dejounte Murray
32′ · +8
Trey Lyles
26′ · -8
Luka Samanic
19′ · -4
Patty Mills
28′ · -1
LaMarcus Aldridge
26′ · +9
Tre Jones
12′ · -6
Keita Bates-Diop
20′ · -1
Drew Eubanks
9′ · +10
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
38′ · +15
Theo Maledon
35′ · +7
Luguentz Dort
31′ · +6
Darius Bazley
30′ · +11
Al Horford
30′ · +10
Kenrich Williams
18′ · -6
Isaiah Roby
17′ · -10
Justin Jackson
13′ · -2
Hamidou Diallo
11′ · -5
Mike Muscala
17′ · -11
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAS and OKC.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
San Antonio Spurs
Lyles, Murray, Poeltl, Walker, and Samanic played 14.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Murray, Poeltl, Walker, Aldridge, and Mills played 6.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Bates-Diop, Eubanks, Jones, Aldridge, and Mills played 5.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Dort, Maledon, and Horford played 27.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Jackson, Diallo, Williams, Roby, and Muscala played 5.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
Jackson, Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Roby, and Muscala played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See every lineup of the game
San Antonio Spurs
Lyles, Murray, Poeltl, Bates-Diop, and Walker played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Lyles, Poeltl, Walker, Samanic, and Mills played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Murray, Bates-Diop, Eubanks, Aldridge, and Mills played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 13 points.
Poeltl, Bates-Diop, Jones, Aldridge, and Mills played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Poeltl, Walker, Jones, Aldridge, and Mills played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Lyles, Murray, Bates-Diop, Walker, and Aldridge played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Lyles, Murray, Bates-Diop, Aldridge, and Mills played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Jackson, Williams, Roby, Maledon, and Muscala played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Diallo, Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Maledon, and Muscala played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Diallo, Williams, Roby, Maledon, and Muscala played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Dort, Roby, and Muscala played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Jackson, Diallo, Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, and Roby played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Dort, Roby, and Horford played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

