SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 24 February 2021

SAS99–102OKC
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 83% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 22 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ OKC winsSAS wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when OKC leads and falls when SAS does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · SAS

Jakob Poeltl
Lonnie Walker IV
Dejounte Murray
Patty Mills
Keita Bates-Diop

Poeltl · Walker · Murray · Mills · Bates-Diop

Closing lineup · OKC

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Theo Maledon
Luguentz Dort
Darius Bazley
Al Horford

Gilgeous-Alexander · Maledon · Dort · Bazley · Horford

Q1Q2Q3Q4
SAS
Jakob Poeltl

Jakob Poeltl

35′ · -15

Lonnie Walker IV

Lonnie Walker IV

33′ · -7

Dejounte Murray

Dejounte Murray

32′ · +8

Trey Lyles

Trey Lyles

26′ · -8

Luka Samanic

Luka Samanic

19′ · -4

Patty Mills

Patty Mills

28′ · -1

LaMarcus Aldridge

LaMarcus Aldridge

26′ · +9

Tre Jones

Tre Jones

12′ · -6

Keita Bates-Diop

Keita Bates-Diop

20′ · -1

Drew Eubanks

Drew Eubanks

9′ · +10

OKC
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

38′ · +15

Theo Maledon

Theo Maledon

35′ · +7

Luguentz Dort

Luguentz Dort

31′ · +6

Darius Bazley

Darius Bazley

30′ · +11

Al Horford

Al Horford

30′ · +10

Kenrich Williams

Kenrich Williams

18′ · -6

Isaiah Roby

Isaiah Roby

17′ · -10

Justin Jackson

Justin Jackson

13′ · -2

Hamidou Diallo

Hamidou Diallo

11′ · -5

Mike Muscala

Mike Muscala

17′ · -11

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAS and OKC.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

San Antonio Spurs

  • Lyles, Murray, Poeltl, Walker, and Samanic played 14.6 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Murray, Poeltl, Walker, Aldridge, and Mills played 6.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Bates-Diop, Eubanks, Jones, Aldridge, and Mills played 5.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Dort, Maledon, and Horford played 27.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Jackson, Diallo, Williams, Roby, and Muscala played 5.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.

  • Jackson, Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Roby, and Muscala played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

▸See every lineup of the game

San Antonio Spurs

  • Lyles, Murray, Poeltl, Bates-Diop, and Walker played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Lyles, Poeltl, Walker, Samanic, and Mills played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Murray, Bates-Diop, Eubanks, Aldridge, and Mills played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 13 points.

  • Poeltl, Bates-Diop, Jones, Aldridge, and Mills played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Poeltl, Walker, Jones, Aldridge, and Mills played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Lyles, Murray, Bates-Diop, Walker, and Aldridge played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Lyles, Murray, Bates-Diop, Aldridge, and Mills played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Jackson, Williams, Roby, Maledon, and Muscala played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Diallo, Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Maledon, and Muscala played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Diallo, Williams, Roby, Maledon, and Muscala played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Dort, Roby, and Muscala played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Jackson, Diallo, Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, and Roby played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Dort, Roby, and Horford played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Scoring
201
combined points
23.2 below the season average (224.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

10 calls reviewed0 no admitted errors